[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 23W from 17N southward, is moving
west at around 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N between 21W-
25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 41W from 15N
southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. A recent ASCAT pass
indicates that a weak low pressure is centered along the wave's
axis near 08N41W. This wave is also well depicted in model
guidance. Scattered showers are noted from 05N-10N between 40W-
50W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 58W from 18N
southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts
an area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N-17N between 54W-60W. The
wave is already bringing heavy rain and gusty winds in portion of
the Lesser Antilles.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 73W from 21N
southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts
an area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis between 70W-
80W. The strongest showers prevail onshore along the
Venezuela/Colombia coastline.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 18N16W to 10N27W to 08N44W. Aside from the convection from
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection are within 08N-
10N between 25W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridge is building across basin while an upper level
trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, across the central
Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. These features are
keeping light to gentle southeast winds across much of the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the
eastern half of the basin east of 90W affecting the Florida
Peninsula and adjacent waters. A surface trough is analyzed over
the Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 20N94W with scattered showers.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north-
central Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to
moderate winds and relatively low seas throughout. A trough will
form over the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move
westward across the Bay of Campeche at night through the period
accompanied by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on
the tropical wave over the central Caribbean.

Most of the convection currently occurring across the basin is
due to the proximity of two tropical waves. Scattered showers are
also noted south of 11N between 76W-83W due to the monsoon trough.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin, with strongest speeds prevailing across the south central
portion.

The tropical wave along 73W will move across the rest of the
central Caribbean through early Mon evening, and across the
western Caribbean Tue through early Wed night. Another tropical
wave, with its axis roughly about 150 nm east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms south of 16N and between 55W and the Lesser
Antilles. This system will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, and
move across the eastern Caribbean on Mon through Tue night, then
slow down as it moves across the central Caribbean Wed through Thu
night. Expect increasing winds and seas, as well as showers and
thunderstorms to impact the tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean
waters. Expect fresh to strong trades to pulse over the central
Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia tonight and again Mon
night, then over the eastern Caribbean and the eastern part of the
central Caribbean S of 15N between 68W and 74W through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

The mid-to upper level trough is bringing scattered moderate
convection across Florida and the western Atlantic west of 75W.
To the east, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N60W and another 1023 mb
high near 32N32W.

The convection along and east of Florida will weaken tonight. A
surface ridge will continue build across the forecast area during
the next 24-48 hours. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
a pair of tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean
will support fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds north of
Hispaniola, including the Approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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