[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 22W from 17N southward, is moving
west at around 15 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-
11N and east of 19W-24W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 40W from 15N
southward, is moving west at around 15-20 kt. Recent ASCAT data
indicate a weak low pressure centered near 07N40W along the wave.
This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms are noted from 04N-10N between 38W-44W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 57W from 17N southward,
moving west at around 15-20 kt. TPW imagery depicts an area of
high moisture content within this wave. Scattered moderate
convection is noted 11N-16N between 54W-60W. The wave is already
bringing heavy rain and gusty winds in portion of the Lesser
Antilles from Barbados to Martinique. Scattered showers are also
noted south of 09N to the coast of Brazil 180 nm southwest of the
wave.

An central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 72W from 21N
southward, is moving west at around 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts
an area of high moisture content within this wave. Scattered
showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 12N16W to 08N40W to 13N57W. Aside from the convection from
the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
are within 06N-10N between 24W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridge is building across the western Gulf of Mexico
while an upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle,
across the central Gulf to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. These
features are keeping light to gentle southeast winds across much
of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring along the northern Gulf coast from 28N-30N between 85W-
90W, and near the Florida coast from 24N83W across the Florida
peninsula into the western Atlantic. Another surface trough is
analyzed over the eastern Gulf from 22N91W to 18N94W. Scattered
shower activity is noted to the north of the trough from 23N93W to
93W-94W.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north-central Gulf the
next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and
relatively low seas throughout. A trough will form in the Yucatan
Peninsula and move to the Bay of Campeche at night with moderate
to fresh winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on
the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean.

Scattered showers are noted south of Cuba and across the central
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the eastern
Caribbean from 12N-14N between 61W-67W. Heavy rainfall with gusty
wind conditions are observed in Barbados and into Martinique.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin, with strongest speeds prevailing across the south central
portion.

A tropical wave currently along 73W will move across the central
and western Caribbean through Mon. A second and active tropical
wave, with axis along 57W, continues to produce an area of
cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms. This system will move
over the Tropical N Atlantic waters today, reaching the central
Lesser Antilles tonight. Then, the wave will move across the
eastern Caribbean on Mon, likely reaching the central Caribbean
on Tue. Expect increasing winds and seas, as well as showers and
thunderstorms to impact the tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean
waters. Expect fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia
tonight, and again Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

The upper-mid level trough is bringing scattered moderate
convection across Florida and the western Atlantic west of 74W.
To the east, a surface trough extends into the central Atlantic
from a 1019 mb low near 34N47W to 26N55W. Scattered showers
prevail along the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N56W and
a 1024 mb high near 32N38W.

A trough just east of Florida will move north-northeast and
weaken today. A ridge will build across the forecast area in the
wake of the trough. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a
pair of tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea
will support fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds N of
Hispaniola, including the Approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoon and evening hours through Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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