[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 18N
southward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers, possibly more related to the ITCZ, are from
07N to 11N between Africa and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 17N
southward. ITCZ-related isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 30W and 43W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 30W and 50w.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 18N
southward. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 13N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 13N to 16N
between 50W and 60W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive during the next couple of days.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 21N
southward. The wave is moving through the area of an upper level
trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
extend from Jamaica into the Windward Passage. Other isolated
moderate rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 09N30W, 09N37W, to 13N49W, to the 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 13N55W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers are within 150
nm on either side of the line 10N14W 08N24W 07N34W 07N39W
09N43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond
22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
to the NW of the line 30N86W 21N97W, and to the SE of the line
that runs from 28N82W 25N90W 19N96W, including in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A stationary front is along
31N/32N from SE Georgia beyond the eastern parts of Texas.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north central Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. It will allow for generally
gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas. A trough will
form in the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the SW Gulf of
Mexico at night, with moderate to fresh winds.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 32N46W 26N54W 26N67W, across the
Bahamas near 22N73W, through the Windward Passage, to a
Caribbean Sea 17N78W cyclonic circulation center, toward the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 180 nm to the SE of the trough from 25N northward, and
within 120 nm to the SE of the trough from 23N to 26N between
70W and 74W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers extend from Jamaica into the Windward Passage.
Other isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea
from Hispaniola.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh
to strong winds there. The wave will cross into the western part
of the basin on Monday. A second tropical wave, that is
associated with a broad area of disorganized rainshowers, will
move across the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean today, approaching the
Lesser Antilles on Monday, and moving to the central part of the
Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds and rainshowers
are expected in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea from
Tuesday through Wednesday night, with the passage of the second
wave.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N/32N from SE Georgia beyond the
eastern parts of Texas. A surface trough extends from SE Georgia
to 33N76W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the west and NW of the line that
passes through 32N57W to SE Cuba.

An upper level trough is along 26N42W 19N45W 17N51W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A trough just to the east of Florida will move north-
northeastward and weaken today. High pressure will extend from
the central Atlantic Ocean to southern Florida and the Straits
of Florida through Monday night, before shifting northward to
near 27N from Tuesday through Thursday night. A tropical wave,
currently several hundred miles to the east of the Lesser
Antilles, will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea from Monday
through Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds, associated with the
tropical wave, are expected in the far SE waters on Monday and
Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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