[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040553 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 18N
southward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between 15W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 17N
southward. ITCZ-related isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 10N between 30W and 40W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40w.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 18N
southward. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 13N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 16N
between 50W and 57W. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next day or two, as the disturbance moves
west-northwestward toward the Lesser Antilles.  Upper level
winds then are expected to become unfavorable for more
development early next week.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 21N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 20N
between the Mona Passage and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N16W, to 10N22W, 08N32W, to
13N49W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 13N53W.
The ITCZ is along 10N55W 09N61W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on
either side of the line 10N14W 08N32W 07N40W 15N46W 15N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond
22N98W at the coast of Mexico. A surface trough is in southern
Mississippi, SE Louisiana, and the coastal waters of Louisiana.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line 30N85W
21N97W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are between 88W in the Yucatan Peninsula and 95W in the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A stationary front is along 31N/32N from 79W westward, through
southern sections of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, beyond
central Louisiana. A surface trough is in Florida from 27N to
30N between 82W and 83W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the SE of the line that extends from Florida
near 28N83W to 23N90W to 19N94W.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north central Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. It will allow for generally
gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 32N46W 26N54W 26N67W, across the
Bahamas near 22N73W, through the Windward Passage, to a
Caribbean Sea 17N78W cyclonic circulation center, toward the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 180 nm to the SE of the trough from 26N northward, and
within 120 nm to the SE of the trough from 23N to 26N between
70W and 74W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Caribbean
Sea from 16N to 20N from Hispaniola westward, and from 13N
southward from 78W westward.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave will move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea through Monday. Expect fresh to strong winds in
the south central Caribbean Sea tonight, and again on Sunday
night, then moderate to fresh winds through Thursday night. A
tropical wave, with an associated broad area of disorganized
rainshowers and thunderstorms, is several hundred miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. This system will move across the Tropical N
Atlantic Ocean waters on Sunday and Sunday night, approach the
Lesser Antilles early on Monday afternoon, move across the
eastern Caribbean Sea from Monday night through Wednesday, and
then move into the eastern part of the central Caribbean Sea
from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Expect increasing
wind speeds and sea heights, and rainshowers and thunderstorms,
to impact the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N/32N from 79W westward, through
southern sections of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, beyond
central Louisiana. A surface trough is in Florida from 27N to
30N between 82W and 83W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the west and NW of the
line that passes through 32N60W 27N70W, to the coast of Cuba
along 80W.

An upper level trough is along 26N42W 19N45W 17N51W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

A trough just to the east of Florida will move north-northeast
and weaken through Sunday. High pressure will extend from the
central Atlantic Ocean to southern Florida and the Straits of
Florida through Monday night, before shifting northward to near
27N from Tuesday through Thursday night. A tropical wave,
currently several hundred miles to the east of the Lesser
Antilles, will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea from Monday
night through Thursday. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms,
some with possibly strong gusty winds, associated with the wave,
are expected to move from E to W across the far southeastern
waters beginning on Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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