[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm
on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N
southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within
180 nm to the NW of the ITCZ between 47W and 54W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
within 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W and 60W. It
is possible that this system may become a tropical depression
early next week, while it moves west-northwestward toward the
Leeward Islands, even though the upper level winds are expected
to be only marginally conducive for development.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on
either side of the wave.

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, inland, moving through
Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are in the coastal plains/coastal waters of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 18N16W, to 11N20W, to a 1013 mb low pressure
center that is near 10N25W, to 07N32W and 08N35W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N35W to 14N42W and 06N57W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N
to 12N between 10W and 20W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere, from 40W eastward, within 120 nm to the north of the
ITCZ and within 270 nm to the south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, to
25N93W, to 20N98W inland, in Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, elsewhere from 83W
eastward, and within 120 nm of the coast between SE Louisiana
and the Deep South of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
are spread across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, from the
Florida Big Bend, to 25N85W, to the NE corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

A second surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N74W
28N79W 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of South
Carolina, from 31N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers have
been moving northward, across Florida, from Cuba northward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the Atlantic Ocean, NW of the line that passes through 32N78W
26N75W, to 22N77W at the coast of Cuba.

A weak ridge will prevail over the northern Gulf this weekend.
High pressure will build west across Florida into the eastern
Gulf Sun night through Tue. Mostly tranquil marine conditions
will continue several more days, with seas remaining 3 ft or
less across the entire basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N53W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 24N66W cyclonic circulation center, across
Hispaniola, to a 17N73W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation
center, to 13N76W, and southwestward, toward the coasts of Costa
Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 11N
northward from 78W, in the Windward Passage and between Cuba and
Jamaica.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W 09N78W, through southern
Costa Rica, beyond 09N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 11N southward
from 75W westward.

A tropical wave will move west across the central and western
Caribbean through Mon. Winds in the south central Caribbean will
diminish tonight, then remain moderate to fresh Sun through Wed.
A tropical wave near 49W will move over the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Sun night through Tue night with increased winds and
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 32N74W 28N79W
24N80W in the Straits of Florida. Scattered to numerous strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of South Carolina,
from 31N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers have been
moving northward, across Florida, from Cuba northward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
Atlantic Ocean, NW of the line that passes through 32N78W
26N75W, to 22N77W at the coast of Cuba.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N53W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 24N66W cyclonic circulation center, across
Hispaniola, to a 17N73W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation
center, to 13N76W, and southwestward, toward the coasts of Costa
Rica and Panama. A 1019 mb low pressure center is near 34N51W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 330
nm to the NW of the line that passes through 30N43W 24N55W
19N67W.

A trough off the east coast of Florida will drift northward and
weaken today. High pressure will build over the Central Atlantic
along 27N Sun and Mon. A tropical wave will reach the Leeward
Islands early next week, then move northwest across the SW N
Atlantic waters through Wed with increased winds and seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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