[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm
on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 15N
southward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 10N
to 12N between the wave and 51W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 40W
and 51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
51W and 59W. It is possible that this system may become a
tropical depression early next week, while it moves west-
northwestward toward the Leeward Islands, even though the upper
level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 20N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm on
either side of the wave.

A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, inland, moving through Central
America. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in Central
America, from western sections of Nicaragua to southern sections
of Honduras and Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that
is near 10N24W, to 07N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N31W 12N42W
08N61W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 12W and 18W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 150 nm to the south of
the ITCZ between 31W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, to
25N93W, to 20N98W inland, in Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, elsewhere from 83W
eastward, and within 120 nm of the coast between SE Louisiana
and the Deep South of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 22N to 27N between 89W and 95W.

A surface trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, off the coast
of SW Florida, along 28N83W to a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 26N83W, to the coast of NW Cuba near 23N83W.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers have been
moving northward, across Florida, from Cuba northward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
Atlantic Ocean from 73W westward, from Cuba northward.

A weak surface trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move
northward, slowly, through Saturday, while producing increased
rainshowers and thunderstorms offshore. The trough will
dissipate by Sunday, allowing high pressure to build westward
across Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 32N53W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 24N66W cyclonic circulation center, across
Hispaniola, to a 17N73W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation
center, to 13N76W, and southwestward, toward the coasts of Costa
Rica and Panama. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N
northward between the Windward Passage and 84W, and from 11N
southward from 78W westward.

A tropical wave near 65W will move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea through Saturday night, then cross the western Caribbean Sea
from Sunday through Monday. A moderate north-south pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong
trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday
night, becoming moderate to fresh from Sunday through Wednesday.
Another tropical wave near 47W will move across the Tropical N
Atlantic Ocean waters from Monday through Tuesday night, with
the potential for increased winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, off the coast
of SW Florida, along 28N83W to a 1012 mb low pressure center
that is near 26N83W, to the coast of NW Cuba near 23N83W.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers have been
moving northward, across Florida, from Cuba northward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
Atlantic Ocean from 73W westward, from Cuba northward.
A second surface trough, is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 33N71W
30N78W 25N80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N53W cyclonic circulation
center, to a 24N66W cyclonic circulation center, across
Hispaniola, to a 17N73W Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation
center, to 13N76W, and southwestward, toward the coasts of Costa
Rica and Panama. A 1020 mb low pressure center is near 33N48W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side
of the line that runs from 33N48W to 25N57W to 20N62W, and
elsewhere from 22N northward between 50W and 70W.

A trough off the east coast of Florida will drift northward and
weaken through Saturday. Rainshowers and thunderstorms, with
strong gusty winds and locally rough seas, are expected offshore
in association with this feature. Bermuda high pressure will
build into the Central Atlantic Ocean along 27N, from Sunday
through early next week, and then move northward by mid week. A
tropical wave will reach the Leeward Islands early next week,
then move northwestward across the SW N Atlantic Ocean waters
through Wednesday, with increased winds and seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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