[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic is along 29W south of 15N, moving W at 15 kt. A weak
1013 mb low pressure remains behind the wave axis near 09N24W.
Scattered showers extend out 100 nm on either side of the wave
axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W south of 14N, moving W
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-14N
between 43W-50W. Looking ahead, this wave will continue to
generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development
of this system is still possible. A tropical depression could
form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the
low moves west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development as the system
approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.

A tropical wave is along 64W from 21N southward, moving W around
15-20 kt and is approaching the Greater Antilles. The wave is
well defined on low level precipitable water imagery and in the
wave model guidance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
across the Lesser Antilles, from 14N-21N between 61W-64W. This
wave will move through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the
next 24 hours bringing some rainfall to the islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 88W south of 21N,
moving W around 10 kt. This wave has reduced its motion in the
last 24 hours as it moves across Central America. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across Honduras, Nicaragua, and El
Salvador from 11N-16N between 84W-89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 13N17W to 08N28W.
The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 07N30W to 10N43W. It
then continues west of another tropical wave near 09N48W to the
coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. Scattered showers are seen along
the ITCZ from 06N-11N between 50W-59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large mid-upper level trough continues to dig across the
eastern Gulf extending into the Bay of Campeche. The mid-level low
centered near 29N87W while strong ridge builds from the west.
This trough is maintaining a moist, unstable airmass across
Florida peninsula and the southeastern U.S. At the surface, a
trough is seen from 23N86W to 28N83W with a 1013 mb low along this
trough near 25N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
within 50 nm of this trough. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen
in the west-central Gulf from 23N-28N between 90W-94W. Light to
gentle winds continue across the basin with moderate winds in the
eastern Gulf.

The weak low pressure trough over the eastern Gulf will slowly
move northward through Saturday which will produce increased
showers and thunderstorms offshore. The trough will dissipate by
Sunday, allowing high pressure to build westward across Florida
and into the eastern Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the
central Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas to
northeast Jamaica, from 25N73W to 18N76W. Most of the convective
activity occurring across the Greater Antilles is over land.
However, some thunderstorms are seen seen near the Cayman Islands
and south of Cuba from 18N-23N between 76W-84W. Trade winds are
moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean with light winds in the
eastern and western basin.

The tropical wave near 64W will move over the eastern Caribbean
through Saturday night, then cross the western basin from Sunday
through Monday. A moderate pressure gradient across the Caribbean
will promote fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean through Saturday night, becoming moderate to fresh
Sunday through Wednesday. Another tropical wave near 46W will
reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early next week and may
produce increased winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

The upper-mid level trough is bringing scattered moderate
convection across Florida and the western Atlantic. A surface
trough is seen in the area from 27N79W to 31N78W. This is also
acting as a focal point for convection which is noted from 24-31N
between 75W-80W. Another upper level trough extends across the
central Atlantic into the central Caribbean, igniting scattered
thunderstorms from 20N-28N between 56W-66W. Scattered
thunderstorms are also noted from 28N-31N between 43W-53W. Surface
ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025
mb high near 33N43W.

A trough off the east coast of Florida will slowly move northward
and weaken through Sat. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms, strong gusty winds, and locally rough seas are
expected east of Florida tonight and Saturday. Bermuda high
pressure will build over the Central Atlantic along 27N Sunday
through early next week. A tropical wave will reach the Leeward
Islands early next week and may produce increased winds and seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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