[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along the coast of Africa is along 16W from 17N
southward, moving west at around 10 kts. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 05N-09N between the coast of Liberia,
Sierra Leone and Guinea to 18W. The tropical wave will continue
to move west and exit the African coast by this afternoon.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 14N southward,
moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180
to 200 nm on either side of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 14N southward,
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection are
within 180 nm from the wave axis. This disorganized area of
convection is only has a potential for a gradual development
in the forecast for the next few days while it moves WNW across
the Lesser Antilles.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 20N
southward, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave is moving
across the western portion of PR and the eastern Caribbean sea.
Isolated showers and tstorms are noted north of 14N-16N between
66W-69W while south of 14N and north of 16N the remainder of the
wave remains dry.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 11N16W to 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from that point and
turns NW to 13N47W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near
11N52W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated to the
tropical waves, scattered showers are seen along the monsoon
trough 04N-09N between 18W-28W. Along the ITCZ, scattered to
moderate is noted from 13N-10N between 39W-48W and from 09N-14N
between 52W to the coast of Brazil near 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad ridge across the Desert southwest is gradually building
across the western Gulf of Mexico while upper level trough extends
from the Florida Panhandle across the central Gulf to the coast
of Mexico near 21N97W. This is keeping a gentle and light east to
southeast flow across much of the basin. Scattered showers are
noted near the coast of Louisiana associated to a surface trough
in the area from 29N91W to 29N94W. Another trough near the eastern
Gulf from 28N83W to 23N86W is producing scattered moderate
convection from 23N-27N across the Florida peninsula between 81W-
84W. ASCAT data indicates moderate southwesterly flow east of the
trough axis.

A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters this weekend. High
pressure will build west across Florida into the eastern Gulf Sun
night through Wed. Under the influence of the ridge, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, with seas remaining 3 ft or less
across the entire basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N70W across the NW
Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W. In the
central Caribbean, an elongated low is centered near 15N74W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are present from the Gulf of
Honduras near 16N-21N between 80W-86W. In the eastern Caribbean,
scattered showers and tstorms are noted from 10N-13N between 59W-
63W.

A tropical wave along 66W will move west across the central and
western Caribbean through Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean tonight, and again Sun night, then remain
moderate to fresh through Wed. The elongated area of low pressure
located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles will move over the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sun,
reaching the Lesser Antilles by Sun night. This system will bring
increasing winds and seas, as well as shower and thunderstorm
activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

The upper-mid level trough is bringing scattered moderate
convection across Florida and the western Atlantic. A surface
trough is seen in the area from 25N79W to 30N78W. This is also
acting as a focal point for convection which is noted from 24-31N
between 75W-80W. A weak low pressure can be seen at the surface
near 32N49W with a surface trough extending southwest to 26N56W.
Scattered showers and tstorms extend 80 nm southeast of the trough
and 200 nm east of the low. Surface ridging is seen across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 32N37W.

The trough off the east coast of Florida will drift northward and
weaken today. High pressure will build over the Central Atlantic
Sun and Mon, extending a ridge across the SW N Atlantic through
Wed. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles is forecast to move
northwestward, north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by the
middle of the next week, with increased winds and seas, as well as
shower and thunderstorm activity.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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