[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 16N
southward. The wave is passing through the Cabo Verde Islands.
A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 11.5N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to
17N between 20W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 15N
southward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
10.5N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 07N to 14N between 42W and 56W. The area of low
pressure is elongated. Some slow development of this system is
possible. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
well to the east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week,
while the low pressure center moves west-northwestward 10 to 15
mph. The upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive
for development by Tuesday and Wednesday, as the system
approaches the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 24N southward. The wave is
at the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are from 18N to 20N between 58W and 60W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 20N to 25N between 54W and 63W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 21N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Jamaica and Cuba, from
17N northward between 76W and 82W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N
northward from the Windward Passage westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Gambia, to 11N26W and 12N32W. The ITCZ continues
from 12N32W to 07N46W to 10N44W and to NW Suriname near 05N57W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 11N between 08W and 15W against the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 20N along the Mexico
coast. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers span the
entire Gulf of Mexico.

A weak ridge will persist in the northern Gulf of Mexico during
the next few days. A trough will move into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, from tonight into Saturday. Expect increased rainshowers
and thunderstorms offshore. High pressure will build westward
from the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the central Atlantic Ocean,
toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the waters that are from 16N northward
between the Mona Passage and 82W. A surface trough is cutting
across the SE Bahamas into the Windward Passage.

A tropical wave along 86W will move west across Central America
today. A tropical wave near 60W will move across the Tropical N
Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Caribbean Sea through Saturday
night, then cross the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday and
Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south
central Caribbean Sea through early Saturday, then remain fresh
through early next week. Another tropical wave near 41W will
reach the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean early next week, and produce
increased winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs from the Florida Keys northward into north
central Florida. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the offshore waters, about 270 nm to the east
of Florida, the coast of Cuba northward.

An upper level trough extends from 30N54W toward eastern
Hispaniola. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 270 nm to the east of the trough from 26N
northward.

A trough across the Bahamas will move northwestward into central
Florida through Saturday, then weaken on Sunday. Widespread
rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, strong gusty winds, and
rough seas are expected as the trough moves through the area.
High pressure will build into the Central Atlantic Ocean along
27N early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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