[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021828
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
228 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
along 27W south of 15N, moving W at 10 kt. A weak 1013 mb low
pressure remain behind the wave axis near 10N23W. Scattered
showers extend out 120 nm on either side of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W south of 14N, moving W
around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave
from 07N-14N between 41W-46W. Looking ahead, this wave will
continue to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week. Upper-
level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development
as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday into Wed.

A tropical wave is along 61W from 23N southward, moving W around
10-15 kt. The wave is at the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea
along the Lesser Antilles. The wave is well defined on low level
precipitable water imagery and in the wave model guidance. The
latest ASCAT data indicates some gusty up to gale force winds
associated to the convection in the area from 18N-20N between
60W-62W. South of 17N along the wave axis, winds remain around
10-15 kt. winds Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 16N- 24N between 56W- 64W. This wave will move through the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the next 24 hours bringing some
rainfall to the islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 86W from 21W
southward, moving W around 10 kt. This wave has reduced its
motion in the last 24 hours as it moves across Central America.
Scattered showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras with more
scattered showers in the Pacific portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to a
1013 mb low pressure near 10N23W, then to 09N32W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 11N41W, then resumes west of the
tropical wave near 09N46W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough near the
coastal waters of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, from 04N-11N
between 12W-17W. n are from 03N to 11N between 08W and 15W
against the coast Aside from the convection near the tropical
waves, scattered moderate isolated convection is noted West of
46W from 06N-11N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper-level trough continues to dig across the eastern
Gulf with the mid-level low centered near 28N87W while strong
ridge builds from the west. This trough is maintaining a moist,
unstable airmass across Florida peninsula and the southeastern
U.S. At the surface, a trough is seen from 23N83W to 30N79W in
the western Atlantic. Scattered moderate strong convection is
east of the trough from 23N-27N between 81W- 83W. Surface trough
over the Bay of Campeche is near 22N92W to 18N91W. Scattered
moderate to strong tstorms are seen north of 23N-26N between 90W-
93W. Light to gentle winds are seen across the basin with moderate
winds in the eastern Gulf.

A weak ridge is located over the northern Gulf this morning. A
trough has moved into the eastern Gulf and across the Florida
peninsula. This trough should slowly move northward into Sat,
producing increased showers and thunderstorms offshore, before
dissipating on Sun. Afterwards, high pressure will build westward
from the Atlantic across Florida into the eastern Gulf early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the
central Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Turks and
Caicos near 24N72W to western Haiti and the Windward passage
18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from Jamaica to
Cuba. Activity in the Gulf of Honduras is associated to the wave.
Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central Caribbean with
light winds in the eastern and western basin.

A weak tropical wave near 62W will move over the eastern Caribbean
through Sat night, then cross the western Caribbean Sun and Mon.
A moderate N-S pressure gradient across the Caribbean will promote
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean
through Mon, then weaken to moderate to fresh on Tue. Another
tropical wave near 44W will reach the Tropical N Atlantic early
next week and may produce increased winds and seas. This system
has a moderate likelihood of becoming a tropical cyclone over the
next five days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

A surface trough runs from 23N84W northward across the Florida
peninsula and the western Atlantic Ocean to 30N79W. Scattered
to numerous convection is noted across the western Atlantic west
of 74W, the northern Bahamas, and the Straits of Florida. An
upper level trough extends from 31N52W toward Hispaniola and the
central Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted north of 28N to 31N between 48W-53W. A 1025 mb high
pressure centered near 33N41W remains in control across the
basin.

A trough across the Florida peninsula and into the Atlantic will
slowly move northward through Sat, then weaken on Sun. Widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms, strong gusty winds, and rough
seas are expected east of Florida through Sat. The Bermuda High
will build over the Central Atlantic along 27N through early next
week. A tropical wave will reach north of the Leeward Islands
early next week and may produce increased winds and seas. This has
a moderate likelihood of becoming a tropical cyclone over the
next five days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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