[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands along
21W from 02N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure is
noted along the wave axis near 11N22W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N- 10N between 21W-27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 02N-17N, moving
W around 15 kt. A 1012 mb low is along the wave axis near 08N38W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave from 08N-13N
between 38W-45W. Looking ahead, a gradual development is expected
with this system for the next day or two while it moves west-
northwest. Environment conditions become more conducive by
Saturday and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54/56W from 04N-25N,
moving W around 15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level
precipitable water imagery and in the wave model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 19N between near
51W-55W. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles in the
next 24 hours bringing some rainfall to the islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 81W from 09N-22N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted north of 18N between
79W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N16W
to 11N30W to 07N42W. ITCZ continues from 07N42W to 08N53W. Aside
from the convection associated to the tropical waves, no
significant convection is noted along the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper-level low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
centered near 27N88W. An upper-level trough extends from western
Pennsylvania to the upper low over the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche
to Mexico near 18N98W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over
the eastern and southern Gulf from the coast of Florida to 93W. A
surface trough over 21N93W to 18N93W in the Bay of Campeche is
inducing scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle
to moderate wind speeds prevail throughout most of the Gulf of
Mexico, according to the latest ASCAT pass. Looking ahead, weak
ridging will remain over the northern Gulf the next several days,
allowing gentle to moderate winds and low seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extending from the Turks and Caicos through Haiti
to 17N73W is responsible for scattered moderate convection south
of the Mona Passage from 16N-18N between 67W-69W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere north of 15N between
the Virgin Islands and Haiti. Upper-level ridging and subsidence
are covering much of the central Caribbean.

A Caribbean tropical wave along 81W will reach Central America
Fri. A tropical wave along 54/56W will move across the Tropical N
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh to strong
trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean through
Sat morning. A tropical wave well east of the area, over the
central Atlantic, will reach the Tropical N Atlantic early next
week. This wave is likely to significantly increase winds and seas
over the Tropical N Atlantic early next week as it has potential
to strengthen to a tropical low pressure system.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves, including the wave that is currently bringing
significant showers and tstorms to the area between the NW
Bahamas and South Florida.

A surface trough extends from 23N70W to Haiti. Scattered showers
prevail along and east of the trough near Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Another trough extends from 31N77W to 25N80W along
the eastern FL coast. This is producing an area of disturbed
weather in the Straits of FL and the northwest and central
Bahamas. Conditions could briefly become conducive for development
over the weekend before the system merges with a front and
accelerates northeast off the southeast U.S. coast.

A trough near Haiti will move northwestward across the Bahamas
through late tonight into early Fri, then across southern Florida
during Fri and across central and northern Florida from Fri
afternoon through Sat night. This trough will be accompanied by
numerous showers and thunderstorm, with strong gusty winds, rough
seas and heavy rainfall. The trough will become diffuse over the
far northwest part of the area by late Sun. Central Atlantic high
pressure will build westward near 27N early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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