[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands along
21W from 02N-16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm E and 240 nm W of the wave axis from
07N-12N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37/38W from 03N-18N,
moving W around 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis near
10N37W. Scattered showers with isolated moderate convection is
from 05N-13N between 32W-46W. Looking ahead, upper-level winds
are forecast to become more conducive for further development this
weekend as the wave moves westward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54/55W from 04N-24N,
moving W around 15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level
precipitable water imagery. An ASCAT pass from Wednesday evening
depicts the wave at the surface. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near the wave axis north of 21N. This wave will move through
the Lesser Antilles by late Friday bringing some rainfall to the
islands.

A tropical wave extends from just east of Miami Florida near 26N79W
to 20N80W to 09N80W and is moving W around 10 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is along the northern part
of the wave between the northwest Bahamas, South Florida and the
north coast of central Cuba from 23N-27N between 77W-82W.
Elsewhere from 18N-27N between 73W-84W, scattered showers and
tstorms are occurring. Near the southern portion of the wave,
scattered moderate to strong convection is seen over N Colombia, E
Panama, E Nicaragua and the far SW Caribbean S of 10N between
75W-79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N24W to 10N30W to 09N44W. No significant convection is noted
other than the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper-level low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
centered near 28N88W. An upper-level trough extends from western
Pennsylvania to the upper low over the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche
to Mexico near 18N99W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over
the eastern and southern Gulf, southeast of a line from 30N89W to
21N97W. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is inducing
scattered moderate convection south of 19.5N between 93W-96W.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds prevail throughout most of the Gulf
of Mexico, according to the latest ASCAT pass. Looking ahead, weak
ridging will remain over the northern Gulf the next several days,
allowing gentle to moderate winds and tranquil seas of 3 ft or
less across the basin to continue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extending from the Turks and Caicos through Haiti
to 17.5N73W is responsible for scattered moderate convection south
of the Mona Passage from 16N-18N between 67W-69W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere north of 15N between
the Virgin Islands and Haiti. Upper-level ridging and subsidence
are covering much of the central Caribbean.

The surface trough over Hispaniola will continue to move west-
northwest, bringing enhanced rainfall to Hispaniola through today.
The rains will affect eastern and central Cuba through early
Saturday. A Caribbean tropical wave along 80W will reach Central
America Fri. A tropical wave along 55W will move across the
Tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh
to strong trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean
through Sat morning. A tropical wave in the Atlantic along 38W
will reach the Tropical N Atlantic early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves, including the wave that is currently bringing
significant showers and tstorms to the area between the NW
Bahamas and South Florida.

A surface trough extends from 24N70W to Haiti. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms prevail along and east of the trough near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This trough will move NW across the
Bahamas into central Florida through Sat night as moisture from
the trough merges with moisture from the tropical wave ahead of
it. Scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and areas of strong
gusty winds with heavy rainfall are likely.

Farther east, a surface trough is from 31N52W to 26N55W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from 32N50W to 25N57W to 24N72W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails from 21N-32N between
48W-54.5W. The convection is due to the surface trough, tropical
wave and upper-level features. The remainder of the eastern
Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a
1024 mb high near 32N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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