[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis off the African
coast along 18W from 02N-16N. Scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm west of the wave axis from 06N-13N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 03N-18N, moving
W around 15 kt. A 1009 mb low is along the wave axis near 10N36W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm west of the wave
axis from 05N-13N. Looking ahead, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for further development this weekend as
the wave moves westward, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by early next week east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 04N-23N, moving
W around 15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level precipitable
water imagery. A recent ASCAT pass from Wednesday evening
continues to depict the wave at the surface. Despite abundant low
level moisture, the wave is moving through an area of fairly dry
mid and upper levels, and no significant convection is noted south
of 19N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis north
of 19N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 10N-23N, moving W
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the northern
part of the wave over Haiti, Cuba, the Windward Passage, the
central and NW Bahamas and South Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is also over Panama and N Colombia where the southern
tip of the wave nears the East Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N30W to 09N40W to 10N44W. No significant convection is noted
other than the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper-level low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
centered near 28N88W. An upper-level trough extends SW from this
upper low to the Bay of Campeche. Upper-level divergence east of
the trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 25N-28N
between 82W-86W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen over
the western Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche.
Elsewhere east of a line from 30N84W to 26N90W to 18N94W,
scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present. Somewhat drier
air is over the western Gulf. Winds over the northern Gulf are
5-10 kt, with 10-15 kt winds over the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Looking ahead, weak high pressure ridging will remain
over the northern Gulf through the next several days providing for
a gentle to moderate wind flow and relatively tranquil seas across
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough over Hispaniola extends from 24N68W to 18N71W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N-22N
between 64W-72W, to include the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The strongest convection in this area is located south of the
Dominican Republic from 16.5N-18N between 67.5W-70.5W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the central Caribbean
will reach the far western Caribbean by early Sat. The surface
trough over Hispaniola will continue to move west-northwest,
bringing enhanced rainfall to Hispaniola through Thursday, and the
Bahamas, eastern Cuba and Florida through Saturday. Another
tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean late Fri
through Sat night and the central Caribbean Sun and Sun night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be associated with these
waves. In the wake of these waves, trade winds will increase to
strong speeds over the south central Caribbean waters. Another
tropical wave currently over the eastern Atlantic along 36W is
likely to significantly increase winds and seas over the Tropical
N Atlantic early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 35N70W. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N50W to 24N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-31N between 49W-53W due
to enhancement from an upper level low that is centered near
29N52W. A large upper-level trough extends SW from this upper low
to near 24N67W. Cloudiness and shower activity is located on the
SE side of the upper-trough axis. A 1026 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 33N34W.

Over the W Atlantic, the northern part of a tropical wave is
moving through the central Bahamas, with associated scattered
showers and thunderstorms over waters S of 27N between 73W-82W.
This convection is being further enhanced by upper-level
divergence in the area. This activity is attendant at times by
fresh to strong winds. This part of the wave will continue to move
west-northwestward across the central Bahamas through Thu, then
northwestward across the NW Bahamas Thu night and to southern and
central Florida Fri through through Sat night. Scattered to
numerous showers and tstorms, some with strong gusty winds and
heavy rain, will impact the waters between Florida, the Bahamas
and Cuba through Sat night due to the tropical wave and the
surface trough, which will follow closely behind the wave.
Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail across the
area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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