[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2219 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is south of the Cabo Verde Islands along 23W S of
16N, moving W at 10 kt. A 1013 mb low pressure is noted along the
wave axis near 11N24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N-13N between 21W-27W

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W S of 16N, moving W
around 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low is along the wave axis near
09N39W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave from
07N-12N between 37W-43W. Looking ahead, a slow development is
expected with this system during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward around 10 kt. A tropical depression is likely
to form several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are now forecast to become unfavorable
for additional development by early next week as the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56/58W from 05N- 24N,
moving W around 10-15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level
precipitable water imagery and in the wave model guidance.
Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 17N between near
53W-60W. This wave will move through the Lesser Antilles in the
next 24 hours bringing some rainfall to the islands.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 83W from 09N-22N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted between 12N-18N
between 81W- 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 12N17W
to 11N25W to 07N45W. ITCZ continues from 07N45W to 10N56W. Aside
from the convection associated to the tropical waves, no
significant convection is noted along the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper-level trough continues to dig across the eastern
Gulf with the mid-level low centered near 28N88W. This is bringing
moist, unstable air across Florida and the southeastern U.S. At
the surface, ridging prevails with a surface trough extending off
the west coast of Florida from 28N82W to 26N83W. Most of the
convective activity is over land. However, scattered thunderstorms
are seen from 24N- 30N between 82W-91W. Light to gentle winds are
seen across most of the basin with moderate winds in the eastern
Gulf.

A weak high pressure ridge will persist over the northern Gulf
for the next couple days. A low pressure trough will move into the
eastern Gulf late Friday into Saturday, producing increased
showers and thunderstorms offshore. High pressure will build
westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf early next week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the
northeast Caribbean. A surface trough extends from the Turks and
Caicos to western Haiti near 18N74W. This is giving way to
scattered moderate convection across most of the Greater Antilles
and the northern Caribbean from 17N-20N between 67W-84W. Scattered
moderate convection is also moving across Nicaragua and Honduras
with some of the activity moving into the Gulf of Honduras, S of
17N and W of 84W. Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the central
Caribbean with light winds in the western basin.

A Caribbean tropical wave near 83W will reach Central America by
Friday. Another tropical wave near 58W will move over the
Tropical N Atlantic and eastern Caribbean through Saturday night.
Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the south central
Caribbean through Saturday, then remain fresh through early next
week. A tropical wave well east of the area near 39W will reach
the Tropical N Atlantic early next week and produce increased
winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves.

The mid-upper level trough over the eastern Gulf is bringing
scattered moderate convection across the western Atlantic from
25N-32N between 75W-80W. A surface trough extends off the Florida
coast from 32N51W to 31N52W. This system has a near 0 percent
chance of developing over the next 5 days. Farther south, a trough
extends from the Turks and Caicos to Haiti from 28N47W to 26N48W.
The significant convection is occurring in the Caribbean. In the
central Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 32N37W to
30N39W. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the trough
from 29N-32N between 34W-39W. Surface ridging prevails across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 31N30W.

A trough extending from near the Turks and Caicos Islands to
western Haiti will move northwestward across the Bahamas tonight
through Friday, then across southern and central Florida Friday
through Saturday before weakening by Sunday. This trough will be
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms, strong gusty
winds, and locally rough seas. High pressure will build over the
Central Atlantic along roughly 27N early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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