[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01S32W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-
02S between 14W- 26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-
04S between 31W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure near the area where Florida, Georgia, and
Alabama intersect is ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. A weak
surface trough is over the western Yucatan, although still over
land. Some light showers are seen over the southern Bay of
Campeche with some clouds along the south Texas and northern
Mexican coast. Areas of smoke across the Bay of Campeche could
bring visibilities down to 3 nm through Monday morning. Gentle to
moderate east- southeast winds are seen across the Gulf.

High pressure northeast of the area will support mainly moderate
to locally fresh return flow through the week, pulsing to fresh to
strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily
development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure
may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low
pressure develops near the Florida Peninsula.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds continue to be fresh to strong north of Colombia.
Across the rest of the basin, trades are gentle to moderate.
Convection is occurring just to the north of central Cuba along a
surface trough over the Bahamas. Rain with some embedded
thunderstorms are also seen across Hispaniola in addition to
moderate showers over eastern Puerto Rico. Low- topped showers are
also seen across the Lesser Antilles. Additionally, areas of smoke
in the Gulf of Honduras could reduce visibility to 3 nm through
Monday morning.

An upper-level shortwave trough over Florida is anticipated to
strengthen and cut off while moving slowly southeastward during
the next few days. This should provide the forcing for an
enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and the central and southeastern Bahamas. A slight
risk of isolated flash flooding particularly along the terrain of
eastern Cuba and Hispaniola is expected into Thursday.

High pressure north of the area and low pres over Colombia will
support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean through
the week, pulsing to near gale NW of the coast of Colombia during
the late night and early morning hours. Mainly moderate to fresh
trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will build seas in
the tropical north Atlantic by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the northern Bahamas near 25N78W to
central Cuba near 22N78W. Strong convection is occurring just
north of Central Cuba and south of the Bahamas. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms are also seen in the west Atlantic from
28N-24N between 70W-76W. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends
from a 1019 mb low near 34N38W to near 23N38W. Showers can be
seen within 100 nm east of this trough. There are also some
scattered showers extending west and over the Cabo Verde Islands
to southern Western Sahara.

The surface trough will linger over the central Bahamas
while high pressure builds NE of the area. The high will support
E to SE winds though mid week, with strong winds pulsing off the
coast of Hispaniola mainly at night. The pressure gradient will
tighten by mid-week, increasing the pressure gradient and
resultant winds to fresh to strong S of 27N and W of 70W through
Thursday night before weakening some.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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