[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N25W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is
north of the ITCZ from 03N-01N between 18W-26W and from 02N-02S
between 30W-46W. Isolated moderate convection is moving off the
coast of Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, north of 03N and east of 13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure continues to sit over the Florida
Panhandle and is ridging across the eastern Gulf. A weak surface
trough is still observed over the western Yucatan. Clouds with
some isolated light showers are seen over the southern Bay of
Campeche and along the south Texas and northern Mexican coast.
Areas of smoke across the Bay of Campeche could bring visibilities
down to 3 nm through this morning. Gentle to moderate east-
southeast winds are seen across the Gulf.

High pressure northeast of the area will support mainly moderate
to locally fresh through the week, with occasionally stronger
winds off Texas. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily
development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure
may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low
pres develops near the Florida Peninsula.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds continue to be fresh to strong north of Colombia.
Across the rest of the basin, trades are gentle to moderate.
Convection continues across north-central Cuba along a surface
trough over the Bahamas. Showers with some moderate rainfall is
observed across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Thunderstorms are
also seen in the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti.
Additionally, areas of smoke in the Gulf of Honduras could
reduce visibility to 3 nm through Monday morning.

An upper-level shortwave trough over Florida is anticipated to
strengthen and cut off while moving slowly southeastward during
the next few days. This should provide the forcing for an
enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and the central and southeastern Bahamas. A slight
risk of isolated flash flooding particularly along the terrain of
eastern Cuba and Hispaniola is expected into Thursday.

High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean
through the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia
during the late night and early morning hours. Mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell will build
seas in the tropical north Atlantic by mid week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the northern Bahamas near 29N73W to
central Cuba near 21N77W. Strong convection is occurring along
this trough from the central Bahamas to north-central Cuba.
Showers with embedded thunderstorms are also occurring near the
northern portion of the trough west of 70W. In the central
Atlantic, a trough extends from a 1019 mb low near 34N38W to near
22N40W. Another low has developed along this trough near 26N37W
and showers are just north and east of this low. Showers can also
be seen north of 28N and east of 34W near the trough. Scattered
showers continue moving to the north and east across the Cabo
Verde Islands to northeast Mauritania and southern Western
Sahara.

A surface trough will linger over the central Bahamas while high
pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support E to SE
winds though mid week, with strong winds pulsing off the coast of
Hispaniola mainly at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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