[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
09N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 01S30W to
the coast of South America near 02S45W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-04S between 13W-26W, and from 02N-03S
between 31W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04S-08S
between 31W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is present near the intersection of Florida,
Georgia, and Alabama with ridging extending westward along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast. A weak surface trough is present
from 25N92W to 19N91W with scattered showers over the W Bay of
Campeche S of 21N and W of 93W. Winds are mostly 5-15 kt with
lightest winds over the NE Gulf and strongest winds along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure NE of the area will support mainly moderate to
locally fresh return flow through the week, pulsing to fresh to
strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily
development of a trough across the peninsula. The high pressure
may weaken by the end of the week as broad troughing or weak low
pressure develops near the Florida Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds are generally moderate to fresh with strong breeze
just north of Colombia, as seen in the ASCAT scatterometer.
Widely moderate convection is over Cuba due to a surface trough
from the N Bahamas near 26N78W to central Cuba near 22N78W. This
convection is also due to upper air diffluence E of an upper level
trough. Scattered showers are present over Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica, and N
Colombia.

An upper-level shortwave trough over Florida is anticipated to
strengthen and cut off while moving slowly southeastward during
the next few days. This should provide the forcing for an
enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and the central and southeastern Bahamas, with a
slight risk of isolated flooding by late Monday through Thursday.

High pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean
through the week, pulsing to near gale NW of the coast of
Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Easterly swell
will build seas in the tropical N Atlantic by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the N Bahamas near 26N78W to central
Cuba near 22N78W. Widely moderate convection is over the Bahamas
from 21N-28N between 72W-80W. A 1022 mb high is over the W
Atlantic near 34N65W. The tail-end of a dissipating stationary
front extends from 31N60W to 28N64W. Another 1023 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 34N48W. A 1018 mb low is over the E
Atlantic near 34N38W. A surface trough extends s to 27N36W to
22N40W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.

Over the W Atlantic, a surface trough will linger over the
central Bahamas while high pressure builds NE of the area. The
high will support E to SE winds though mid week, with strong winds
pulsing off the coast of Hispaniola mainly at night. The pressure
gradient will tighten by mid week, increasing the pressure
gradient and resultant winds to fresh to strong S of 27N and W of
70W through Thu night before weakening some.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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