[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
monsoon trough between 13W-21W and along the ITCZ mainly west of
36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging and fair weather prevails across the basin,
with a 1017 mb high near the Florida Panhandle 30N85W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate SE winds west of
90W, while light anticyclonic winds prevail east of 90W.

High pressure NE of the basin will continue to support moderate
to locally fresh return flow through the next several days. Winds
will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night
with the daily development of troughing over the peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tail end of a weakening stationary front is over northwestern
Cuba producing scattered showers near the coast and western
portion of the island. Scattered showers are in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Panama and adjacent waters. Mostly
fair weather prevails elsewhere as mid-level ridging covers the
western and central Caribbean south of 19N. Latest scatterometer
depicts moderate trades are over most of the basin except south of
14N, where fresh trades are noted.

The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the S central
Caribbean, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean
and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next
week, as high pressure N of the area builds southward. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next
week.

Potential remains for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late
Sunday into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N61W to
25N74W, then becomes weak and stationary to 23N80W. Scattered
showers are along and within 45 nm ahead of the cold front mainly
north of 29N, while another area of showers prevails within 75 nm
south of the stationary front mainly west of 73W affecting the
southern Bahamas. To the east, a 1018 mb surface high is centered
near 26N59W. A pair of surface troughs extend across the central
Atlantic with scattered showers. The first is from 28N46W to
24N49W, while the second one extends from 32N36W to 21N42W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair
weather.

The cold front will stall today and dissipate through Monday.
High pressure NE of the area will prevail in the wake of the front
supporting moderate to fresh return flow through next week.
Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at
night starting this evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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