[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 05N20W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough between 13W-20W and along the ITCZ
mainly west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin with a 1017 mb
high near the Florida Panhandle 29N84W. ASCAT data shows east
gentle to moderate winds east of 89W and southeast moderate winds
along the western Gulf. The high pressure will shift eastward into
the western Atlantic Ocean through tonight. This will support
moderate to locally fresh return flow through the next several
days. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula at night with the daily development of troughing over
the peninsula.

High pressure NE of the basin will support moderate to
locally fresh return flow through the next several days. Winds
will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
night with the daily development of troughing over the
peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tail end of a weakening cold front is over western Cuba producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast and interior
western portion of Cuba. Scattered showers are in the SW Caribbean
near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama and over the SE Caribbean
near the ABC Islands. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere as
mid-level ridging covers the western and central Caribbean south
of 19N. Latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades are over the E
Caribbean with fresh trades over the central Caribbean south of
17N.

The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the S central
Caribbean, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean
and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next
week, as high pres N of the area builds southward. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week.

Potential remains for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late
Sunday into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N63W to
24N77W, then becomes weak to 23N80W. Scattered showers are along
and within 120 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 29N, while
another area of showers prevails within 200 nm south of the front
and west of 73W affecting the Bahamas. To the east, a surface
trough extends from 31N36W to 20N44W with scattered showers mainly
north of 28N. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin with fair weather.

The cold front will stall front 28N65W to 27N72W to 23N79W late
tonight, dissipating through early Mon. High pres NE of the area
will prevail in the wake of the front will support moderate to
fresh return flow through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to
strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting on Sunday
evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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