[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N
between 9W-17W near the coast of Liberia. Scattered showers are
200 nm north and south of the ITCZ. Additional scattered moderate
convection is from 10S-00N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin with a 1019 mb
high near the Florida Panhandle 29N86W. ASCAT data shows east
gentle to moderate winds east of 89W and southeast moderate
winds along the western Gulf. The high pressure will shift
eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean through tonight. This
will support moderate to locally fresh return flow through the
next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of troughing
over the peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tail end of a weakening cold front is over western Cuba producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast and interior
western portion of Cuba. Scattered showers are in the SW Caribbean
near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama and over the SE Caribbean
near the ABC Islands. Mostly fair weather prevails elsewhere as
mid-level ridging covers the western and central Caribbean south
of 19N. Latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades are over the E
Caribbean with fresh trades over the central Caribbean south of
17N.

The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean
Sea, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean Sea,
and offshore of Honduras, and in the lee of Cuba by early next
week, as high pressure to the north of the area builds southward.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early
next week.

Potential remains for an enhancement of showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola, with a slight risk of isolated flooding by late
Sunday into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N67W to
Northern Bahamas to Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
along and within 120 nm ahead of the front east of 79W, including
portions of the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba.

The cold front will stall front 28N65W to 27N72W to 23N79W tonight,
and then dissipate through early Monday. High pressure NE of the
area will prevail in the wake of the front will support moderate
to fresh return flow through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to
strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting on Sunday
evening.

Currently for the rest of the Atlantic, a 1020 mb high is near
25N58W with fair weather. A surface trough extends from 27N37W to
19N45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen north of 23N
between 33W-38W due to upper-level troughing. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible within 60 nm of a line from 19N45W
to 17N62W due to enhanced low-level convergence. Fresh NE winds
prevail between Morocco and the Canary and Madeira Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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