[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
10N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W across the
equator at 24W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ axes.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is present near the intersection of Florida,
Georgia, and Alabama with ridging extending westward along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast. A weak surface trough is present
from 19N92W to 24N90W with scattered strong convection within 120
nm of 24N87W. Winds are generally light to moderate breeze
conditions.

High pressure northeast of the basin will support moderate to
locally fresh SE wind flow during the next several days. The winds
will pulse to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at
night with the daily development of a trough across the peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1021 mb Bermuda high is centered north of the area near 33N69W,
which is inducing a moderate N-S pressure gradient over the
Caribbean. The E tradewinds are generally moderate to fresh
conditions with strong breeze just north of Colombia, as seen in
the ASCAT scatterometer this morning. A surface trough is present
in the northwestern Bahamas, with scattered strong convection
occurring from 23-26N between 75-79W. Elsewhere scattered showers
are present in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, and
the Leeward Islands.

High pressure to the north of the area will build southward. Fresh
to strong winds will expand in coverage in order to include the
entire central Caribbean Sea and offshore of Honduras, and in the
lee of Cuba by early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere, increasing early next week.

An upper-level shortwave trough over Florida is anticipated to
strengthen and cut off while moving slowly southeastward during
the next few days. This should provide the forcing for an
enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, eastern
Cuba and the central and southeastern Bahamas, with a slight risk
of isolated flooding by late Monday through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is stalling from 32N69W to 26N76W. No
significant winds are associated with the frontal boundary, while
scattered moderate convection is present within 60 nm of the front
west of 70W, while scattered showers are occurring east of 70W.
Farther east a surface trough extends from 32N53W to 21N42W.  No
significant winds are associated with the trough, while scattered
showers are present within 120 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere
weak ridging near 30N dominates the Atlantic and is inducing
generally light to moderate tradewinds.

The front will dissipate through Monday. A ridge will build
across the waters north of 28N through late today, and then move
northward. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds though mid week, with strong winds pulsing off the coast of
Hispaniola mainly at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net