[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
As of 1700 UTC, a squall line continues to move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, currently reaching from near Tampa Bat to
the south central Gulf near 23N88W. A cold front follows the front
from Apalachicola Florida to just off the northwest coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Winds to gale force accompany the squall line
and front, impacting much of the north central and northeast Gulf
north of 25N and east of 90W. Seas are building to 10 to 15 ft
over the northeast Gulf as well. Winds and seas will diminish
below gale force during the over night hours as the front exits
east of the Gulf. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
Southerly winds are increasing to minimal gale force off the coast
of northeast Florida, ahead of a cold front expected to move off
the coast tonight. The gales will gradually diminish overnight and
veer more to the west. Seas will build to 16 ft in the area of
gale force winds through the evening, then gradually subside
overnight as winds diminish. Please refer to the Atlantic High
Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is observed off the coast of West Africa from 02N to
07N between 12W and 14W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted from 01S to 01N, west of 45W to the coast of Brazil near the
mouth of the Amazon River.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold fronts, squall line, convection and gales over the Gulf
of Mexico are described extensively in the section above. Clear
skies, follow the front over the western Gulf. The front also
cleared the persistent area of smoke and haze that has enveloped
much of the western Gulf over the past several days. Strong NW
winds persist over the northwest Gulf where seas are 6 to 9 ft.
Winds and seas will diminish across the western Gulf through the
evening.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will build over the Gulf in
the wake of the front. Fresh to moderate southerly return flow
will set up across the western Gulf by Sun. Otherwise the high
pressure will promote quiescent conditions Sun through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
E to SE winds reaching from the tropical Atlantic waters west of
55W through the central Caribbean, south of strong high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic. Observations from Curacao are
indicative of strong trade winds along the northern coast off the
coast of western Venezuela through the coast of central Colombia.
Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted across the northwest
Caribbean, except for moderate to fresh SE winds through the Gulf
of Honduras. Local observations and satellite imagery also show
areas of smoke north of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft overall,
except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 8 to 10 ft off
Colombia. Regional radar composites are showing a few trade wind
showers across the Windward Islands and south of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, high pres northeast of the area will continue to support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean
through Sun, diminishing Sun night into early next week as the
high weakens. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean
tonight, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly
winds are expected in the wake of the front tonight and Sat,
highest near the Yucatan Channel. Increased showers and
thunderstorms are also expected with the front in the NW Caribbean
tonight into early Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In addition to the gales off the northeast coast of Florida
described above, farther to the east fresh NW winds are noted in
scatterometer data north of a stationary front reaching along 24N
between 50W and 60W. A few showers and thunderstorms are also
evident along the front. A cold front is drifting southward
toward the stalled boundary, and will merge later today. Swell of
8 to 9 ft is evident north of 22N between east of 65W.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the front will
extend from 31N73W across the central Bahamas to Cuba Sat evening,
from 31N69W to the southeast Bahamas Sun evening, then stall and
dissipate Mon night through Tue night. Gale force southerly winds
are expected ahead of the front north of 28N between 70W and the
east coast of northern Florida. Numerous showers and scattered
strong thunderstorms will accompany the front beginning this
afternoon east of Florida.

Elsewhere, a cold front reaches from 31N41W to the stationary
front starting at 24N50W. A few showers are noted ahead of the
front north of 28N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
subtropical eastern Atlantic north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are noted south of 20N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily in NW
swell across the area. No other significant showers or
thunderstorms are observed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net