[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
As of 0900 UTC, the main Gulf of Mexico cold front extends from
just east of Pensacola Florida to 25N89W to 18N93W. A pre-frontal
squall line is located about 30 to 45 nm ahead of the front north
of 24.5N. Latest satellite and radar imagery show scattered to
numerous moderate convection within 60 nm either side of the
squall line. Gale force winds are possible today east of the cold
front near the squall line in the NE Gulf north of 26N. A
secondary cold front at 0900 UTC extends from near Slidell
Louisiana to Grand Isle Louisiana to 25N92W. Near gales are
currently occurring west of this secondary front with gusts to
gale force. The two cold fronts are forecast to merge later this
morning. Additional gale force winds are forecast in the NE Gulf
this afternoon behind the merged cold front. The gales in the Gulf
are forecast to end by this evening. Please refer to the Atlantic
High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
The cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula
tonight. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the
front N of 28N between 70W and the east coast of northern Florida
along with numerous thunderstorms and seas of 10 to 15 feet. The
gales will begin in the waters east of northern Florida early this
morning around 1200 UTC. The area of gales will be east of 76W by
Saturday morning. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coasts of Sierra Leone and
Guinea near 09N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to
03S27W to the coast of Brazil near 06S35W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04S-03N between 14W and the coast of South
America. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 02N-08N between 03W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold fronts, squall line, convection and gales over the Gulf
of Mexico are described extensively in the section above. Farther
south, scattered showers are seen in the southern Bay of Campeche
south of 20S. Scattered thunderstorms are located just inland over
Mexico, especially from 18N-19N between 89W-92W. A N-S upper-level
trough axis extends over the central U.S. into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Although drier air has built in behind these two
fronts, isolated showers and storms are over SW Louisiana and
could move over portions of the NW Gulf due to the upper trough.

The cold front extending from Pensacola to the eastern Bay of
Campeche will continue to shift across the basin, moving SE of
the area late tonight. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected on either side of the front, mainly over the northern
waters, with some gale force winds today in the NE Gulf. High
pres will build in the wake of the front this weekend with return
flow expected by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong 500 mb ridge covers the area from the SE and central
Bahamas to the central Caribbean. Relatively dry air and
subsidence covers the eastern and central Caribbean, where only
isolated showers are found. Isolated showers are also near
Trinidad and near Cuba. Latest ASCAT pass from Thursday evening
shows fresh trade winds over much of the eastern and central
Caribbean, with strong trades south of 15N to the coast of
Colombia between 72W-77W. Moderate winds are over the western
Caribbean except for the Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan
Channel, where slightly stronger winds are occurring.

High pres NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds
in the S central Caribbean through Sun, diminishing Sun night
into early next week as the high weakens. A cold front will move
into the NW Caribbean tonight, then weaken and become stationary
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to
locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the
front tonight and Sat, highest near the Yucatan Channel. Increased
showers and thunderstorms are also expected with the front in the
NW Caribbean tonight into early Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ahead of the frontal system in the NE Gulf, scattered showers are
already occurring near SE Florida and the waters from 24N-27N
west of 79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are off NE
Florida north of 28N west of 79W. In the central Atlantic, a cold
front extends from 31N43W to 26N47W to 25N53W, and continues as a
dissipating stationary front to 25N61W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm ahead of the front east
of 46W. West of 46W, scattered showers are near the front. A
secondary cold front to the north of the first front extends from
31N46W to 28N51W to 28N61W, with little to no shower activity
noted. High pressure dominates the eastern subtropical Atlantic
due to a 1026 mb high near 35N26W. See section above for the
expected gale-force winds east of Florida.

Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters today
ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula
tonight. The front will extend from 31N73W across the central
Bahamas to Cuba Sat evening, from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas Sun
evening, then stall and dissipate Mon night through Tue night.
Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front N of
28N between 70W and the east coast of northern Florida. Numerous
showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the
front beginning this afternoon east of Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Hagen
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