[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2318 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...
A squall line continues to move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front follows the front from central Florida to
just off the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds to
gale force accompany the squall line and front, impacting much of
the north central and northeast Gulf north of 23N and within 90 nm
east of the front. Seas are building to 9 to 13 ft over the
northeast Gulf as well. Winds and seas will diminish below gale
force later this evening as the front moves out of the Gulf.
Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning...
Southerly winds are minimal gale force off the coast of northeast
Florida, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the coast
tonight. As the front continues moving eastward, gale force
southerly winds will continue west of 78W and diminish by
Saturday afternoon. Seas will build to 14 ft in the area of gale
force winds through the evening, then gradually subside overnight
as winds diminish. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02S27W to the coast
of Brazil near 05S36W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is observed moving south of the monsoon trough from
05N-03S between 12W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted north of the ITCZ from 01S to 05S between 31W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, The strong squall line continues to move across
the southeast Gulf and stretching into the northwest Caribbean.
The cold front follows behind the squall line with another, albeit
less severe, line of showers and thunderstorms moving right along
the front. The front enters the Gulf right off the coast of
Clearwater, Florida to the northeast Yucatan coast. The squall
line is seen stretching from Fort Myers, Florida to the Caribbean.
See above for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf.
Otherwise, a 1021 mb high is off Mexican coast near 21N96W with
ridging across the western and central Gulf. Cold air cumulus
follows the cold front, but otherwise clear conditions are seen
across the western half of the basin.

The cold front will exit the Gulf tonight and winds will quickly
subside on Saturday. Weak high pressure will subsequently continue
building over the Gulf promoting quiescent conditions from Sunday
through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 2100 UTC, the squall line impacting the southeastern Gulf
is now entering the northwest Caribbean just to the north of
Cozumel, Mexico. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are expected
with this squall line. Ahead of the strong cold front approaching
the Caribbean, gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the
northwest basin. Streamer showers can be seen across this area
ahead of the squall line which is moving across Jamaica and Cuba.
In the central and eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades are
seen with low-topped showers moving across the Lesser Antilles
and south of Puerto Rico. Local observations and satellite imagery
also show areas of smoke north of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
overall, except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 8 to 10 ft off
Colombia.

A cold front, strong for this time of year, will reach the
Yucatan Channel by this evening and push to the Gulf of Honduras
Saturday before dissipating on Sunday. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms, some may be severe, will precede the
front this evening through early Saturday. The Bermuda High will
weaken over the next few days, causing trades to diminish through
Wednesday night. No significant long-period swell are anticipated
to reach the tropical North Atlantic zones through at least
Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale force winds are seen off the northeast Florida coast in
response to an approaching cold front over north-central Florida.
As of 2100 UTC, a squall line is seen from 31N79W to 27N80W. The
second squall line is beginning to enter the Atlantic just to the
south of Daytona Beach, Florida. Farther east of the gale winds,
a cold front enters the waters near 31N39W and stretches to the
southwest to 26N47W. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are
seen within 90 nm of the front. The tail-end of this boundary has
stalled and stretches from 26N47W to 25N53W. Fresh NW winds are
noted in scatterometer data adjacent to the stationary front
associated with a cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 26N-
23N between 53W-62W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by
high pressure.

The front will reach the Atlantic waters tonight and should
extend from 31N74W to the central Bahamas by Saturday afternoon,
from 31N71W to the SE Bahamas Sunday afternoon, and becoming
stationary near the same location Monday afternoon. It is expected
to dissipate on Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous showers and
scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front. There is
potential for severe thunderstorms associated with the front north
of 27N tonight and Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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