[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico early Thu morning. Behind the front, gale force
winds are forecast in the waters offshore of Veracruz Thursday
afternoon and evening. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to
05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N20W to 03S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-40W. Near the coast of
Africa, an area of scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
from 05N-08N between 10W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high centered just off the coast of South Carolina
extends a surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate E to SE
winds cover the eastern Gulf, with fresh winds over the western
Gulf. Near the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, some 20-25 kt
winds are observed. No significant shower activity is seen in the
basin. Light smoke from fires over Mexico traveled northward and
now covers portions of the Gulf of Mexico south of 29N and west
of 86W. Scattered high clouds are over the northern Gulf north of
a line from the Florida Big Bend to 24N98W. Strong subsidence is
over the remainder of the Gulf along with mid-upper level ridging.

High pressure in the northern Gulf will shift slowly E through
Thu ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Thu
morning. The front will reach from Mississippi to Veracruz Mexico
Thu evening, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Fri morning, then move SE of the area Fri night. Strong
to near gale force winds and building seas are expected ahead and
behind the front, except over Veracruz adjacent waters where gale
force winds are likely Thu afternoon and night. See section above
for details. Gale force winds are also likely over the NE Gulf
waters Fri afternoon through the evening hours. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, will accompany
the front across the northern half of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest ASCAT pass shows near gale NE winds near the coast of
Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W-76W, with strong winds elsewhere
from 10N-14N between 72.5W-77W, and fresh trades extending N to
15.5N in the central Caribbean. In the E Caribbean, moderate to
fresh trades prevail, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW
Caribbean. Isolated trade wind showers are possible over portions
of the northern Caribbean near Hispaniola and Cuba as well as in
the western Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sun, with near gale
force at night near the coast of Colombia. Building seas in this
region will range between 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then stall from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat morning before dissipating
Sat evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N57W to 30N61W to
28N68W, continuing as a stationary front through the central
Bahamas to the N central coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Isolated
showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 29N43W. The tail end of a
cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N17W to 27N28W to 29N33W.
Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the front. A
prefrontal trough is over the Canary Islands producing scattered
showers.

Over the W Atlantic, The stationary front will extend from 27N65W
to the northern Bahamas this afternoon and dissipate early on
Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift slowly
eastward across the area today through Fri evening. Winds and
seas will increase over much of the NW waters starting early on
Fri ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida
peninsula by Fri evening. Gale conditions are possible ahead of
the front over northern forecast waters Fri afternoon through late
Sat morning. Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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