[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf of Mexico Thu morning. Just behind the front, a brief
period of minimal gale force winds are forecast in the waters near
Veracruz late Thursday afternoon and evening. Please refer to the
Atlantic High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N17W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08S-03N between 21W and the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
with isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 07W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high centered in the Atlantic just offshore of South
Carolina extends a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds cover the eastern Gulf, with fresh to locally
strong winds over the western Gulf. No significant shower activity
is seen in the basin. Light smoke from fires over Mexico covers
portions of the Gulf of Mexico south of 29N and west of 86W.
Scattered high clouds are over portions of the northern Gulf.
Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Gulf along with
mid-upper level ridging.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning.
Widespread strong to near gale force winds and building seas are
expected both ahead of and behind the front as it moves across the
Gulf of Mexico, exiting the Gulf Fri night. A brief period of
minimal gale conditions are expected near Veracruz Mexico Thu
afternoon and evening, and gales are also likely in the NE Gulf
south of the Florida panhandle Fri evening. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, will
accompany the cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest ASCAT pass from Tuesday evening shows near gale NE
winds near the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W-76W,
with strong winds elsewhere from 10N-14N between 72.5W-77W, and
fresh trades extending N to 15.5N in the central Caribbean. In the
E Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail, with gentle to
moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Isolated showers are seen over
portions of the northern Caribbean, including south of western
Cuba and the area from Jamaica to southern Haiti.

High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Highest winds
will be near the coast of Colombia each night, with building seas
of 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move into
the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N56W to 29N63W,
continuing as a stationary front to Cat Island Bahamas to the N
coast of Cuba near 22N78.5W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are near and within 120 nm ahead of the front east
of 67W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the front
west of 67W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N15W to
27N21W to 25N30W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of
the front. A prefrontal trough is east of the Canary Islands
producing scattered showers. High pressure dominates the central
subtropical Atlantic in between the two frontal systems.

The stationary front over the western Atlantic will weaken and
dissipate tonight. High pressure will shift slowly eastward
across the area through Thu night. Winds and seas will increase
over much of the NW waters Fri ahead of a cold front expected to
move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale conditions are
possible ahead of the front over northern forecast waters Fri
afternoon through Sat. Numerous showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms will accompany this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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