[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N20W to
03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is inland over W Africa from 04N-09N between
02W-12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-02S
between 04W-14W. Similar convection is from 02N-06S between 20W-
38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over South Carolina near 33N80W. 10-15
kt E to SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with
strongest winds along the Texas coast. Mostly fair weather is over
the Gulf. Residual dense smoke is over the W Gulf from 20N-26N
between 94W-97W, moving NW. In the upper levels, a ridge is over
the Gulf with axis along 90W. Scattered high clouds are over Texas
and the far NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of
the Gulf.

High pressure NE of the Gulf will slowly shift eastward through
Thu. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning. The
front will reach from Mississippi to Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening,
from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Fri
morning, then move SE of the area Fri night. Strong to near gale
force winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind of
the front, except over Veracruz adjacent waters where gale force
winds are possible Thu night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some with strong gusty winds, are likely to accompany the front
across the northern half of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds
are along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds are over the
NW Caribbean. A surface trough is west of Jamaica from 19N80W to
14N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1006
mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Nicaragua and
Honduras.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sun, increasing to
near gale force at night near the coast of Colombia. Building seas
in this region will range between 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the
Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then
stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat morning before
dissipating Sat evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N61W to 28N70W. A
stationary front continues through the central Bahamas to central
Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
fronts. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
29N44W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from
31N20W to 28N32W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
A prefrontal trough is over the Canary Islands producing scattered
showers.

Over the W Atlantic, the stationary front will extend from 27N65W
to the northern Bahamas on Wed afternoon, and dissipate early on
Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will slowly shift
eastward Wed through Fri evening. Winds and seas will increase
over much of the NW waters starting early on Fri ahead of a cold
front expected to move off the Florida peninsula by Fri night.
Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front over the W
Atlantic Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon. Numerous heavy
showers and thunderstorms will also accompany this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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