[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast over the
western Gulf of Mexico on 14/1800 UTC from 30N86W to 25N89W to
18.5N93W. Gale force winds are forecast S of 20N and W of 95W
with seas 8 to 10 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is along
the monsoon trough from 7N-03S between 04W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 12/2100 UTC, a warm front is just inland of the Texas coast.
Scattered moderate convection is inland along the Louisiana and
Mississippi border moving E. A small 1003 mb low is centered over
the SW Gulf near 21N95W. A surface trough extends N from the low
to 26N96W. Smoke is also over the W Gulf W of 90W restricting
visibility to around 5 nm. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows a small
area of scattered showers inland over SW Florida. In the upper
levels, broken high clouds are over the NW Gulf N of a line from
Veracruz Mexico and Tallahassee Florida.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night. The front will
move across the Gulf waters and reach the southeastern Gulf late
Mon. Brief gale conditions will be possible off the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico on Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected along and ahead of the front. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front and shift eastward through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers
are over the Leeward and Windward Islands E of 63W. Barbados has
reported 4 mi visibility and ceilings at 1400 ft. Winds are 21 kt
gusting to 35 kt. These showers are moving W. More scattered
showers are noted over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, and Costa
Rica. Scattered moderate convection has just developed inland along
the Belize and Guatemala border. Elsewhere

Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop in the far western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through early Sat and continue
through Sun before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue
through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N43W to 27N60W and continues as
stationary to 28N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 27N69W to the
SE Bahamas near 24N73W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The remainder
of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is dominated by
surface ridging, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N26W.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will weaken to a trough by
late tonight. The trough will move in a general northwestward
direction through Sat and dissipate by late Sat night. Otherwise,
high pressure will remain present across the area through Sun
night. A cold front will move over the northwest waters Mon,
preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds over the
waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front will reach
from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early on Tue, and
become stationary from near 27N65W to 27N73W and dissipating to
southern Florida Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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