[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is seen from 04S-04N between 02W-10W, and from
03N-07N between 13W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 210 nm N and 270 nm S of the ITCZ between 20W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends over the NW Gulf of Mexico from near
Lafayette Louisiana to 29N94W to Padre Island Texas near 27N97W,
and continues inland as a stationary front NW along the
Texas/Mexico border to beyond 30N101W. As of 1500 UTC, the front
over the Gulf of Mexico has become stationary, and thus has been
changed to a stationary front in the same location. A pre-frontal
trough was evident at 1200 UTC over the NW Gulf parallel to the
front about 60 nm SE of the front. A line of showers containing
isolated thunderstorms about 30 nm wide extends between the coast
of Texas and 45 nm inland from the coast of Texas between Corpus
Christi and the Louisiana border. A few of these showers are over
the far NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1002 mb surface low is
in the SW Gulf near 21N96W with a trough extending NNW from the
low to 25N97W. Little to no shower activity is seen with the low
or trough. Fresh SE winds are observed to the E and NE of the low
over the south-central Gulf.

The stationary front over the NW Gulf will slowly shift westward
while weakening today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Sat night. The front will shift across the Gulf waters, reaching
the SE Gulf Late Mon. Brief gale conditions are possible off the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico on Sun. High pres will build in the wake
of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage NE to the SE
Bahamas and into the Atlantic. Isolated showers are observed over
portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Satellite imagery shows
dry air covering the NW Caribbean north of 17N and west of 78W.

Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop in the far western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras today, and continue through Sun
before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the
south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia today and
prevail through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N47W to 28N60W to 29N70W and
continues as stationary to 31N76W. A surface trough is over the W
Atlantic from the Windward Passage to the SE Bahamas to 27N67W. A
closed mid to upper level low is centered near 25N73W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen from 21N-29N between 65W-75W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the cold front between
47W-65W. The remainder of the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging, anchored by a 1025 mb
high near 28N30W. Over the far eastern Atlantic near the Canary
Islands and near the coast of Morocco, N winds have decreased
since yesterday, but are still strong to near gale.

The cold front from 28N65W to 29N71W will weaken to a trough. The
trough will drift NNW Sat, then dissipate Sun. High pres will
then prevail across the forecast waters through Sun night. A cold
front will move into the NW waters Mon, preceded by fresh to
strong south to southwest winds over the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas. The front will reach from near Bermuda
to the straits of Florida Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Hagen
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