[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast over the
western Gulf of Mexico on 14/1800 UTC from 30N86W to 25N89W to
18.5N93W. Gale force winds are forecast south of 20N and west of
95W with seas 8 to 10 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W
to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 03S28W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 05N-01S between 15W-20W. Isolated moderate
convection is seen along the ITCZ from 02N-08S between 25W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A front is stalled along the middle Texas coast and continues to
linger. Showers are seen moving across the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico, with isolated to scattered showers moving inland
in southeast Texas. A surface trough extends from 27N97W to
21N96W. Fog is being reported in the north central Gulf of Mexico
with visibility down to 2-3 nm. Smoke also continues to move north
into the Bay of Campeche west of 90W. Winds are generally east-
southeast between gentle and moderate, with fresh winds in the
central Gulf.

The surface trough over the western Gulf will slowly shift
westward and weaken through early Saturday. A strong cold front
will move over the northwest Gulf on Saturday night. The front
will move across the Gulf waters and reach the southeastern Gulf
early on Monday. Brief gale conditions will be possible off the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico on Sunday--see above for more details.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead
of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift
eastward through Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Clouds with low-topped showers are moving across the eastern and
northern Caribbean. Showers are also seen across the Greater
Antilles. Trade winds are gentle to moderate in the eastern
portion of the basin, with light trades in the western Caribbean.

Fresh to strong southeast winds are developing in the far western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. These winds will continue through
Sunday before diminishing to fresh speeds by Sunday night. Fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia will continue through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N42W and stretches
to the west to near 30N72W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms
are seen right along the eastern portion of the front east of 52W.
Showers are also along the western half of the boundary, albeit
not as organized. A trough extends across the eastern Bahamas from
27N70W to just off the northeast tip of Cuba near 20N74W. This
trough is adjacent to the tail-end of the front where showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen between 65W-71W. Ahead of the
cold front, showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving east-
southeast from 27N-23N between 40W-50W. Ahead of the front, winds
are out of the south-southwest light to gentle. As the front
passes, winds are switching to north between moderate to fresh.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds out of the east-northeast can
be seen across the rest of the basin as a surface ridging
prevails across the area anchored by a 1030 mb high near 38N64W.

The tail-end of the boundary will weaken to a trough early on
Saturday. The trough will move in a general northwestward
direction through Saturday and dissipate by late Saturday night.
Otherwise, high pressure will remain present across the area
through Sunday night. A cold front, preceded by fresh to mostly
strong southwest winds, will move over the extreme northwest
waters Sun night and across the rest of the northwest part of the
area through early Monday evening. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early on Tuesday, and become
stationary from near 27N65W to 27N73W and dissipating to southern
Florida Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected with this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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