[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
503 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N15W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-10N between
00W- 04W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
along the monsoon trough from 01N-08N between 08W-15W, and from
03N-06S between 15W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low is centered over E Texas near 31N95W. A cold front
extends S from the low to Houston Texas near 29N95W to NE of
Tampico Mexico near 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 25N-31N between 90W-94W. Radar imagery shows a
squall line from Alabama near 33N88W to the Gulf near 28N88W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N between 85W-89W.
Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 24N92W to
18N93W. A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the
Bay of Campeche from 19N-20N between 92W-97W. 10-25 kt SE surface
winds are E of the surface trough and squall line. Weakest winds
are over the NE Gulf, while strongest winds are over the Straits
of Florida, and along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The cold front will reach from southwestern Louisiana to 25N95W
to near Veracruz later this morning, from near southeastern
Louisiana to 25N90W to just inland of Mexico near 18N94W early
this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf through Tue night.
The front will weaken to a trough as it moves across the remainder
of the eastern Gulf early on Wed, and is expected to exit the
area Wed afternoon. High pressure in the wake of the front will
shift to the eastern Gulf by Thu as a weak cold front approaches
the Texas coast. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the
western Gulf Wed night through most of Thu. This front is
expected to become stationary along or just offshore the Texas
coast Thu through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and central Cuba. Similar scattered showers are over
the SW Caribbean along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and
W Panama. Upper level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea
with strong subsidence.

High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue,
reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and
Mon night. This pattern will also support pulsing fresh to strong
winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon night.
Residual long period NE swell will affect the waters E of the
Windward Islands until tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1018 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 28N47W. Another 1024 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N24W.

A ridge will dominate the W Atlantic through Tue. A surface low
will track northeastward from the southern U.S. late on Tue with
an associated cold front entering the northwest part of the
forecast region by Wed morning. The cold front will reach from
near 31N70W to Lake Okeechobee Florida by Wed night, then begin
to lift northward while weakening. Fresh to locally strong SW
winds are expected over the north waters ahead of the front.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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