[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected to pulse
right off the coast of Agadir near 30N. This will begin tomorrow,
09/2100 UTC and then pulse once again on 10/1500 UTC through
11/1200 UTC. Seas are expected to be between 12-15 ft. For more
details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
06N10W to 03N15W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to
02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is adjacent and south of the monsoon trough
from 05N-01S between 06W-21W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N-
04S between 13W-38W, and from 01S-05S between 02W-21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a squall line continues from near Destin, Florida
to 26N87W and is moving across the northeast Gulf along the
Florida Panhandle and approaching the west coast of Florida. This
feature has significant lightning associated with it along with
gusty winds. There is another cluster of thunderstorms seen west
of the squall line near 27N88W to 26N87W and is moving east.
Meanwhile, a cold front is also pushing eastward across the
central Gulf. It enters the waters to the west of New Orleans, LA
to 23N95W. From 23N95W, the tail-end of the boundary stalls to
near 21N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends in the western Gulf from
25N92W to 18N93W. A 1012 mb low was along this trough near 22N94W
and just to the north and east of this low, a cluster of
thunderstorms producing a significant amount of lightning is
observed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate south-southeasterly winds
are generally to the east of the cold front with the exception in
proximity to the squall line. Behind the cold front, moderate to
fresh north-northwesterly winds are seen.

The squall line is expected to exit the northeast Gulf this
evening. The cold front will reach from near southeast Louisiana
to 25N90W and to Mexico near 18N94W early this evening, then cross
the eastern Gulf through Tuesday night. The front will weaken to
a trough as it crosses the remainder of the eastern Gulf early
Wednesday before it exits the Gulf by Wednesday afternoon. High
pressure over the northwest Gulf Tuesday will shift to the
eastern Gulf by Thursday as a weak cold front approaches the
Texas coast. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the
western Gulf Wednesday night and Thursday. This front is expected
to become stationary near the Texas coast Thursday through Friday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are moving north off the Venezuela coast to the
islands of Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire in addition to the southern
portions of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, light showers are
seen across the Greater Antilles including Puerto Rico along with
the northwestern Caribbean. The latest ASCAT shows light to gentle
trades across the far eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades
are observed across the central and western Caribbean, with
strong winds off the Colombian coast. A 1009 mb low is also
located off the Colombian coast near 10N76W.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday.
Near gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia
tonight. Strong to near gale force east to southeast across the
Gulf of Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon.
Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras tonight will
diminish to between light and gentle Wednesday and Thursday, then
increase to fresh to strong Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section above in regards to the
developing gale off the coast of Agadir. A surface trough located
from 29N60W to 25N65W is associated with some clouds and light
showers near it. There is also a cluster of showers seen from 30N-
24N between 66W- 78W. Meanwhile, a 1021 mb low is seen on satellite
near 30N39W with a trough extending southwest of this low to near
28N41W. Light showers are seen to the west of this low.
Additionally, another trough is seen from 29N32W to 25N36W.
Scattered light showers are moving across the southern Atlantic.
Otherwise, high pressure is ridging across the area anchored by a
1024 mb high near 36N30W.

High pressure ridging over the area will shift east ahead of
low pressure tracking east from Texas to the SE U.S. by Tuesday
night. The associated cold front will cross the northwest section
of the forecast waters early Wednesday. The front will reach from
near 31N70W to West Palm Beach, Florida by Wednesday night. The
front will stall and weaken and extend from near 31N65W to 26N74W
to South Florida early Thursday then dissipate by late Thursday
night. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected over the northern
waters east of the front. The front will be preceded by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will build across
the northern waters Thursday through Friday night.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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