[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 00N17W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
S of the monsoon trough from 01N-10N between 00W-04W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough
from 01N-08N between 08W-15W, and from 03N-06S between 15W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 08/0300 UTC, a 1010 mb low is centered over E Texas near
31N96W. A cold front extends S from the low to W of Houston Texas
near 29N95W to Matamoros Mexico near 26N97W. A prefrontal trough
extends over the Gulf of Mexico from 28N94W to 24N96W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-32N between
91W-95W. Radar imagery shows a squall line from S Mississippi near
32N89W to the Gulf near 28N89W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is N of 29N between 87W-91W. Elsewhere, a small area of
scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from
18N-19N between 94W-96W. 10-25 kt SE surface winds are E of the
surface trough and squall line. Weakest winds are over the NE
Gulf, while strongest winds are over the Straits of Florida, and
along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The cold front over the NW Gulf will reach from SE Louisiana to
the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning, then from the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche by
Mon night. A band of showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
possibly severe, will move from W to E ahead of the cold front
across the northern and central Gulf waters through Mon. The front
will weaken to a trough as it exits the SE Gulf on Wed. High
pressure following the front will shift E over the eastern Gulf by
Thu as another cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Expect fresh to
strong return flow, ahead of this second cold front, across the
western Gulf Wed night into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola, and central Cuba. Similar scattered showers are over
the SW Caribbean along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and
W Panama. Upper level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea
with strong subsidence.

High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue,
reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and
Mon night. This pattern will also support pulsing fresh to strong
winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon night.
Residual long period NE swell will affect the waters E of the
Windward Islands until tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1019 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N71W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 28N48W. Another 1024 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N31W.

A ridge will dominate the W Atlantic through Tue. A surface low
will track northeastward from the southern U.S. late on Tue with
an associated cold front entering the W Atlantic by Wed morning.
The cold front will reach from near 31N70W to Lake Okeechobee
Florida by Wed night, then begin to lift northward while
weakening. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are expected over the
north waters ahead of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net