[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend, pulsing to gale-force tonight off Colombia and near-gale
force each night thereafter. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N04W
to 01S13W. The ITCZ continues from 01S13W to 03S26W to the coast
of Brazil near 06S35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along and in the vicinity of both boundaries from 02S-03N between
06W-14W. Additionally, scattered showers are seen west of 14W to
the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of surface troughs are present in the Gulf waters with no
significant convection. The first trough extends along the west
coast of FL from 28N83W to 25N85W. The second one is right off
the western Yucatan from 21N87W to 16N91W. Scattered showers are
seen on satellite across the northwest Gulf in addition to the
western Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, surface ridging
prevails across the basin anchored by a 1028 mb high just off the
coast of South Carolina. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds across the basin.

High pressure prevailing across the forecast waters will retreat
eastward Sun ahead of a cold front, which will move off the Texas
coast late Sun. The front will extend from near Mississippi to the
Yucatan Peninsula Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northeast winds
pulsing to gale-force winds south of 12N between 74W to 76W.
This conditions continue tonight across the south-central
Caribbean with a Gale warning in effect. Refer to the section
above for details. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers across
the central Caribbean west of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh
trades are seen across the central and eastern portions of the
basin with fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds to the north
of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the
western Caribbean.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the S central Caribbean through Mon. Winds will pulse
to gale force tonight off Colombia and near gale force each night
thereafter. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W
through Sun night, except fresh to strong near the Windward
Passage at night tonight and Thu night, and in the Gulf of
Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the
tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters at 31N62W to 26N72W. From 26N72W,
the tail-end of the frontal boundary stalls from that point into
the Straits of Florida. To the east of this boundary, a 1021 mb
low is located near 25N66W. A trough extends along this low from
29N63W to 22N67W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen
from 31N-29N west of 58W. There are clouds with embedded isolated
showers along the surface trough. Surface riding prevails
elsewhere, anchored by a 1036 mb ridge centered near 37N39W.

A cold front from near 30.5N65W to 26N72W, then becomes stationary
to the Straits of Florida will stall from near 30N65W to the Straits
of Florida overnight. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front and prevail across the area through Sun night. The area of
high pressure will start to retreat eastward on Mon ahead of the
next cold front which will approach the western waters Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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