[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend, pulsing to gale-force tonight off Colombia and near-gale
force each night thereafter. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02S16W. The ITCZ continues from 02S16W to 03S26W to the coast
of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along and in the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of 06N.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of surface troughs extend over the southwest Gulf waters
with no significant convection. The first trough is located off
the Mexican coast 24N97W to 20N95W. The second one is right off
the western Yucatan from 22N89W to 18N92W. Scattered showers are
seen on satellite across the northwest Gulf in addition to the
western Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, surface ridging
prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high just off the
coast of South Carolina. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate easterly winds across the basin.

High pressure across the forecast waters will shift east later in
the week ahead of a cold front and low pressure area moving
through the Central Plains. This will allow winds and seas to
increase over the western Gulf on Saturday. The front will move
off the Texas coast by late Sunday. The front will extend from
near Mississippi to the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are expected to develop tonight across the
south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers across the central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the central
and eastern portions of the basin with fresh to strong north-
northeasterly winds to the north of Colombia. Light trades are
seen across the western Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE
to E winds across the south-central Caribbean through Sunday
night. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight off Colombia and
near gale force each night thereafter. Otherwise, mainly moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and
tropical Atlantic west of 55W through Sunday night, except fresh
to strong near the Windward Passage at night tonight and Thursday
night, and in the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly
swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the waters at 31N66W to 26N75W. From 26N65W,
the tail-end of the frontal boundary stalls from that point into
the Straits of Florida. To the east of this boundary, a 1021 mb
low is located near 26N66W. A trough extends along this low from
29N65W to 22N68W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen
from 31N-28N west of 55W. There are clouds with embedded isolated
showers to the west of the surface trough. Surface riding prevails
elsewhere, anchored by a 1037 mb ridge centered near 38N39W.

High pressure will build in the wake of the front off the Straits
of Florida and prevail across the area through Sunday night. The
area of high pressure will start to retreat eastward on Monday
ahead of the next cold front which will approach the western
waters Monday night.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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