[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend, pulsing to gale-force tonight off Colombia and near-gale
force each night thereafter. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N05W
to 01S13W. The ITCZ continues from 01S13W to 03S25W to the coast
of Brazil near 05S34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along both boundaries. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed near the coast of Brazil from 02S-02N
between 37W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of surface troughs are present in the Gulf waters with no
significant convection. The first trough extends along the west
coast of FL from 28N84W to 25N83W. The second one is right off
the western Yucatan Peninsula from 21N90W to 18N92W. Areas of fog
are seen along the Texas and Louisiana coast extending 100 to 180
nm southeast into the Gulf waters. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are seen over eastern Texas and Louisiana
extending south into the Gulf waters to 28N93W.

On the eastern Gulf waters, a stationary front in the Atlantic
enters the southeast Gulf from the Florida Keys to 24N83W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen across the the Florida Keys
and southern Florida associated to this front. Otherwise, surface
ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high just
off the coast of South Carolina. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh southeast winds across the central and western
Gulf with gentle to moderate on the eastern Gulf.

High pres prevailing across the forecast waters will retreat
eastward Sun ahead of a cold front, which will move off the Texas
coast late Sun. The front will extend from near Mississippi to the
Yucatan Peninsula Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northeast winds pulsing
to gale-force winds south of 12N between 74W to 76W. This
conditions continue tonight across the south-central Caribbean
with a Gale warning in effect. Refer to the section above for
details. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers across the
central Caribbean west of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades are
seen across the central and eastern portions of the basin with
fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds to the north of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the western
Caribbean.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the S central Caribbean through Mon. Winds will pulse
to gale force through early morning off Colombia, and then near
gale force each night thereafter. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical
Atlantic W of 55W through Sun night, except fresh to strong near
the Windward Passage at night through tonight, and in the Gulf of
Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the
tropical Atlantic Fri through Sat.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the waters at 30N61W to the northern
Bahamas near 25N77W and south of the Florida Keys to 24N83W. To
the east of this boundary, a 1021 mb low is located near 26N66W.
A trough extends along this low from 28N64W to 22N67W. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms are seen from 29N to 31N and west of
57W. There are clouds with embedded isolated showers along the
surface trough. Surface riding prevails elsewhere, anchored by a
1033 mb ridge centered near 37N39W.

A stationary front from near 30N65W to 28N68W to the Florida Keys
will gradually dissipate through Fri. High pres will build in the
wake of the front and prevail across the area through Sun night.
The area of high pres will start to retreat eastward on Mon ahead
of the next cold front which will approach the western waters Mon
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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