[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a 1004 mb low that is rapidly deepening
just off the North Carolina coast near 24N77W. The tight pressure
gradient between the low, frontal boundary, and high pressure
ridging to the southeast of these features has induced gale force
southwest winds ahead of the front north of about 29N, with
resultant seas to around 10 ft. The gale force winds will diminish
to strong winds this evening, by 03/0000, as the low quickly
tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies through tonight. The
cold front will lose its punch as it moves across the western
section of the area through Wednesday. However, strong west to
northwest winds behind the front will continue before diminishing
to fresh winds tonight. Seas will also lower to less than 8 ft.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to the coast of Brazil
near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along
the area where the ITCZ and monsoon trough meet, from 05N-03S
between 11W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-
08S between 24W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front enters the Gulf from near Fort Meyers, FL to
24N90W and continues from that point as a stationary front in the
Bay of Campeche to near Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico. There is also
a pre- frontal trough in the eastern Gulf that extends from 26N82W
to 24N83W. Additionally, a trough extends from the stationary
front in the Bay of Campeche to the mouth of the Rio Grande, from
26N97W to 22N95W. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are seen
south of the cold front in the eastern Gulf just off the southwest
Florida coast. There are also light showers and clouds moving
across the western and northern Gulf. Scatterometer data shows
winds between light and gentle out of the north-northeast. In the
western Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh out of the north-
northeast. In the Bay of Campeche, the western portion has
moderate to fresh north- northwest winds, with light to gentle
westerly winds for the rest of the basin.

The cold front will continue to move southeast and exit the basin
tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
slide east across the southern United States Wednesday and
Thursday. Moderate east winds over the Gulf on Wednesday will
veer to SE and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week
into the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical jet stream stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean
east-northeast to the north-central Caribbean and to the
northeastern Caribbean. To the south of this jet stream branch, a
moist atmosphere is present at the mid and upper-levels of the
atmosphere. Scattered to broken low-level clouds are moving
quickly westward in the trade wind flow. Some of these may contain
isolated showers, with the exception of the area from 16N to 18N
and between 63W and 76W, where a large patch of low clouds with
scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms is noted. Gentle
to moderate trades are seen across the eastern and central
Caribbean. Light to gentle trades are seen in the northwest
Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE
to E winds across the south-central Caribbean through Saturday
night, pulsing to near gale force at night. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical
Atlantic west of 55W through Saturday night, except fresh to
strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Wednesday
night, and in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night. Fresh easterly
swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front enters the waters at 31N77W and extends
southwestward into Melbourne, FL. Showers and thunderstorms are
seen along and ahead of the front west of 70W. A cluster of
thunderstorms are also moving southward across the northern
islands of the Bahamas. See the Special Features section above
for details on ongoing gale force winds west of the cold front.

Elsewhere, another cold front enters the waters near 31N53W and
extends to 29N55W. From 29N55W, a trough begins at that point and
stretches to 24N60W. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm on
either side of the cold front. Another trough if to the north of
the Greater Antilles, from 24N63W to 20N67W. Very light, isolated
showers are seen with these troughs. A trough is also seen to the
west of the Canary Islands, from 30N21W to 28N24W. This trough is
associated with a mid-upper level low. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms are observed with this trough. Along the
Canary Islands, there is a trough nestled in the middle from
29N15W to 23N19W. Clouds with light showers are associated with
this trough.

The front will move east of the forecast waters through mid week.
High pressure will build off the Carolinas in the wake of the
front, then shift east of the area through late week ahead of
another low pressure and front moving off the Carolinas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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