[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1012
mb low just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast near 32N79W to
across north-central Florida. The tight pressure gradient between
the low and front and high pressure ridging to the southeast of
these features has induced gale force southwest winds ahead of the
front north of about 29N, with resultant seas to around 10 ft.
The gale force winds will diminish to strong winds this afternoon
as the low quickly tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies
through tonight. The cold front will lose its punch as it moves
across the western section of the area through Wed, however,
strong west to northwest winds behind the front will continue into
this afternoon before diminishing to fresh winds tonight, and
seas will lower to less than 8 ft. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or
the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 01N18W, where scatterometer data from this morning indicated
that the ITCZ begins and continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 04S35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen within 360 nm either side of the monsoon trough and also
within 360 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W and 27W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between
18W and 27W, and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 27W and
30W. Similar convection is within 30 nm either side of a line from
06S26W to 06S30W and within 02S30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from Tampa, Florida to 26N86W and to
24N90W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bay of
Campeche and to just inland Mexico near Comalcalco. Latest
satellite imagery shows broken to scattered low clouds along and
within 60 nm north of the cold front. Areas of rain along with
scattered showers are probable along and near the cold front.
Overcast to broken low and mid-level clouds with possible areas of
light rain are confined to the SW Gulf south of 24N and west of
the stationary front. A trough extends from just west of the cold
front at 83W and extends to 24N85W. Isolated showers are possible
near this trough. Another trough extends from just west of the
stationary front north-northwestward to just southeast of
Brownsville, Texas. Yet another trough extends from near 24N88W to
inland the Yucatan Peninsula at 21N90W. The satellite imagery
shows generally mostly clear skies north of 27N, where high
pressure ridges southwestward from a 1024 mb high located over
eastern Louisiana. Mostly clear skies are over the extreme
southeastern Gulf. Both buoy data and latest scatterometer data
indicate moderate north to northeast winds to the northwest of the
stationary and cold fronts.

As for the latest forecast for Gulf: The cold front will continue
to move southeastward exiting the basin this evening. The
aforementioned high pressure ridging will slide eastward
across Wed through and Thu. Moderate east winds over the Gulf Wed
will veer to the southeast on Thu and become moderate to fresh in
speeds. These winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong
speeds on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical jet stream stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean
east-northeast to the north-central Caribbean and to the
northeastern Caribbean. To the south of this jet stream branch, a
moist atmosphere is present at the mid and upper-levels of the
atmosphere. Scattered to broken low-level clouds are moving
quickly westward in the trade wind flow. Some of these may contain
isolated showers, with the exception of the area from 16N to 18N
and between 71W and 76W, where a large patch of low clouds with
scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms is noted.

In summary, rather quiet conditions continue as moisture at the
low-level is rather limited. Gentle trades are seen across the
eastern and northwestern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades
across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds
are north of Colombia.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong northeast to east winds across the south-central portions
through Sat night, pulsing to near gale force at night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds will remain cross the Caribbean and
tropical Atlantic to the west of 55W through Sat night, except
fresh to strong winds across the approach to the Windward Passage
Wed night, and in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. A moderate
northeast swell will begin to propagate through the tropical
Atlantic waters on Thu and continue into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 15Z, low pressure of 1013 mb is analyzed near 32N79W, with
a cold front extending from it southwestward to inland Florida
near Daytona Beach. A warm front extends from the low eastward to
32N73W and southeastward to near 31N69W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with frequent lightning are occurring within 30 nm
of a line from 30N76W to well north of the warm front. The low
pressure will quickly pull away from the area as it rapidly
intensifies through tonight. See the Special Features section
above for details on ongoing gale force winds south of the low
and east of the cold front.

With the low tracking northeastward along with the supporting
mid/upper-level trough, the aforementioned cold front will weaken
as it moves across the western part of the area through Wed.

A weak trough extends from near 31N53W to 21N61W. Another trough
extends from near 22N65W to 19N66W. Only isolated showers are
possible with these troughs.

Over the far eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is near 31N19W, with
a trough to 28N26W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from mainly upper-level instability are northwest of this trough
and low.

High pressure building in behind the above mentioned cold front
will shift to the central Atlantic by Fri in response to another
low pressure system and associated cold front forecast to move
off the Carolinas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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