[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a 1004 mb low that is rapidly deepening
just off the North Carolina coast near 33N76W. The tight pressure
gradient between the low, frontal boundary, and high pressure
ridging to the southeast of these features has induced gale force
southwest winds ahead of the front north of about 29N, with
resultant seas to around 10 ft. The gale force winds will diminish
to strong winds this evening, by 03/0000, as the low quickly
tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies through tonight. The
cold front will lose its punch as it moves across the western
section of the area through Wednesday. However, strong west to
northwest winds behind the front will continue before diminishing
to fresh winds tonight. Seas will also lower to less than 8 ft.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Africa near 04N05W to 00N16W. The
ITCZ continues from 00N16W to the coast of Brazil near 04S36W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen along the
monsoon trough and the ITCZ from the coast of Liberia west to 29W
and north of 02S-06N

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front enters the Gulf from 26N82W to 23N90W and
continue into the Bay of Campeche to near Ciudad Del Carmen,
Mexico. There is also a trough in the eastern Gulf that extends
from across the Yucatan Peninsula. Additionally, a trough extends
from the stationary front in the Bay of Campeche to the mouth of
the Rio Grande, from 21N95W to 25N97W. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms are seen along and south of the stationary front in
the eastern Gulf just off the southwest Florida coast. There are
also light showers and clouds moving across the western and
northern Gulf. Scatterometer data shows winds between light and
gentle out of the north-northeast as high pressure builds into the
region. In the western Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh out of
the east.

A stationary front from 23N90W to the Bay of Campeche will begin
to dissipate by Thu. High pres building in the wake of the front
will prevail through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical jet stream stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean
east-northeast to the north-central Caribbean and to the northeast
Caribbean. To the south of this jet stream branch, moist atmosphere
is present at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Scattered
to broken low-level clouds are moving quickly westward in the trade
wind flow. Some of these may contain isolated showers, with the
exception of the area from 16N to 18N and between 63W and 76W,
where a large patch of low clouds with scattered showers and
isolated weak thunderstorms is noted. Gentle to moderate trades
are seen across the eastern and central Caribbean. Light to gentle
trades are seen in the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are seen from 13N73W N of Colombia.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the S central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to
near gale force at night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh
trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical
Atlantic W of 55W through Sun night. Fresh easterly swell will
build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The cold front enters the waters at 31N72W and extends
southwestward into FLorida near 27N80W. Showers and thunderstorms
are seen along and ahead of the front west of 703W. A pre-frontal
trough is seen 80 nm southeast of the front extending from 30N73W
across the northwest Bahamas and south of the Florida Keys near
24N80W. A cluster of thunderstorms are also moving southward
across the northern islands of the Bahamas associated with the
trough. See the Special Features section above for details on
ongoing gale force winds west of the cold front.

Elsewhere, a trough stretches from 32N51W to 27N56W. Scattered
showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough axis ahead of a
stationary front north of the area. Further south closer to the
Puerto Rico, a surface trough is also present from 24N64W to
19N67W. A few showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough.

within
100 nm on either side of the cold front. Another trough if to the
north of the Greater Antilles, from 24N63W to 20N67W. Very light,
isolated showers are seen with these troughs. A trough is also
seen to the east of the Canary Islands, from 31N09W to 28N10W
connecting into a 1004 mb low in NE Africa. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a 1037 mb high pressure extending south
to 09N and west of 20W.

A cold front extends from 31N74W to 27N80W. The front will stall
from near 30N65W to S Florida Wed night. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front and prevail across the area through Sun
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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