[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from 28N82W to 25N90W, then transitions to
a stationary front at that point to the Bay of Campeche near
18N94W. Gale force winds are observed west of the front N of 19N.
Seas are between 8 to 13 ft in this area. These conditions will
prevail through the early morning hours. Please refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2,
or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the
basin, northerly winds will strengthen to near-gale force behind
the front. By Tuesday morning, gale-force winds are expected
north of 30N between 79W-80W. Seas in this are will range from
9-11 ft. These conditions will continue through early Wednesday.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
along north and south out to 260 nm from the ITCZ between 25W-42W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere between 14W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay area 28N82W to 25N90W,
then transitions to a stationary front at that point to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is in the
vicinity of the boundary across the basin and north of 25N between
83W-91W over the north central Gulf coast. Strong to near- gale
northerly winds prevail north of 19N and west of 95W, while east
light to gentle winds are noted southeast of the front. Fresh to
strong are seen behind the front north of 26N west of 84W.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay Florida to 25N90W and
continues as stationary to 22N94W to the coast of Mexico near
18N94W. Gale force winds offshore of Veracruz Mexico will diminish
in the next few hours. The front will move slowly E to reach from
Tampa Bay to the southern Bay of Campeche later this morning and
eventually pass to the SE of the Gulf by Tue night. High pres
following the front will push E across the southern United States
Wed and Thu. Moderate E winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE
and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, with
fresh to strong winds along the coast N Colombia and weakest
winds over the Yucatan Channel. Surface trough is noted from
22N59W to 16N63W. Scattered showers are seen along the trough
axis. Low-topped showers are noted from Hispaniola to Jamaica
and southwest Caribbean. In the upper levels, zonal flow and
strong subsidence is suppressing deep convection.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds near the coast of Colombia. Winds at night along the coast
of Colombia will increase to near gale force starting tonight as
the pres gradient tightens. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of
55W through Fri. Fresh easterly swells will build in the tropical
Atlantic by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic to near 31N76W to
29N80W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front and
extends 90 nm to the southeast. A surface trough is ahead of the
front from 29N78W to 27N79W producing scattered shower activity.
Further east, a 1017 mb high is seen in the latest ASCAT data
over the west Atlantic near 27N72W. A weakening 1015 mb low is
centered near 31N60W with a surface trough extending southwest to
26N67W. This low and frontal system are weakening quickly. A
stationary front enters the forecast area from 31N55W to 26N57W,
then starts to dissipate to near 23N61W. Scattered showers are
within 200 nm east of the stationary front north of 27N52W. To
the south, a surface trough extends from 22N59W to the Anegada
Passage. Scattered showers are observed near the vicinity of the
trough. A 1017 mb surface low is centered near 28N23W with cold
front extending along 28N. Scattered showers are possible along
the front.

A trough near the Anegada Passage will drift W and merge with a
dissipating stationary front from 22N63W to eastern Hispaniola the
next few days. A cold front from 31N78W to near Daytona Beach
Florida will slow through tonight. Low pres will rapidly deepen
along the front E of Georgia and support an area of gale force
winds over the waters N of 29N Tue and Tue night. The low will
drag the cold front across the Bahamas Tue afternoon through early
Wed. High pres following the front will build over the waters N
of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. A weak low and front may develop over
the NW portion by the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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