[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from 29N83W to 24N93W to the Bay of Campeche
near 18N95W and will continue moving slowly southeast across the
Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale-force winds are noted over the west
Gulf S of 25N and west of the front. Seas are between 8 to 13 ft
in this area. These conditions will prevail through tonight.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will enter the West Atlantic on Monday morning.
As the front moves east across the basin, northerly winds will
strengthen to near-gale force behind the front. By Tuesday
morning, gale-force winds are expected north of 30N between 79W-
80W. Seas in this are will range from 9-11 ft. These conditions
will continue through early Wednesday. Please refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2,
or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
along and south of the equator mainly west of 21W to the coast
of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to
24N93W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico behind and along the the
front. Strong to near-gale northerly winds prevail north of 20N
and west of 94W, while east light to gentle winds are noted
southeast of the front. Fresh to strong are seen behind the front
north of 26N west of 84W.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29.5N to
to the coast of Mexico near 18.5N95W. Strong to near gale force
winds W of the front will reach gale force near Veracruz tonight.
The front will slowly move E to reach from Tampa Bay to the
southern Bay of Campeche Mon morning and eventually pass to the SE
Gulf by Tue night. High pres following the front will push E
across the southern United States Wed and Thu. Moderate E winds
over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE and become moderate to fresh.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, with
fresh to strong winds along the coast N Colombia and weakest
winds over the Yucatan Channel. Low-topped showers are noted
across the Greater Antilles. In the upper levels, zonal flow and
strong subsidence is suppressing deep convection.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds near the coast of Colombia at night beginning tonight. Winds
at night along the coast of Colombia will increase to near gale
force by Wed as a stronger ridge sets up N of the area. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the west Atlantic near 31N79W to SE Georgia
near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is developing along the
front and extending 100 nm southeast of the front. Further east,
a 1018 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 27N73W. A 1015 mb
low is centered near 30N60W with a surface trough extending from
32N59W to 27N68W. A stationary front is 300 nm to the east of the
low from 31N55W to 23N61W, then it starts to dissipate at that
point to 18N68W eastern tip of Dominican Republic. This low and
frontal system are weakening quickly. Scattered showers are within
180 to 200 nm east of the stationary front and north of 26N54W. A
1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N43W. A 1017 mb
surface low is centered near 29N33W with cold front extending
along 31N. Scattered showers are possible along the front.

A weakening stationary front is from 21N63W to the eastern tip
of the Dominican Republic. The front will weaken into a surface
trough that will move W and support showers across the southern
waters through mid week. A cold front move E from the Florida
coast tonight, then stall later tonight through Mon night. Low
pres will rapidly deepen along the front E of Georgia and support
an area of gale force winds over the waters N of 29N Tue and Tue
night. The low will drag a cold front across the Bahamas Tue
afternoon through early Wed. High pres following the front will
build over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. Refer to the
section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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