[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the
basin, northerly winds will strengthen to near-gale force behind
the front. By Tuesday 02/1500 UTC, gale-force winds are expected
north of 29N between 73W-79.5W. Seas will range from 8-11 ft.
These conditions will continue through Tuesday night 03/0600 UTC.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 02S23W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-10S between 15W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S of Melbourne
Florida near 28N80.5W to Sarasota Florida near 27N83W to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W. A stationary front continues
to 23N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94.5W. 15-25 kt NE winds
are N of front. 10 kt S winds are S of front. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida, N of
front and E of 88W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the E Bay
of Campeche from 22N91W to 18N91W. The trough does not have any
showers but is depicted by a wind shift. In the upper levels, a
trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Broken to overcast
upper level clouds are over the NE Gulf.

The front will meander through this evening then begin to move SE
and exit the basin by Tue night. High pres following the front
will slide E across the southern United States Wed and Thu.
Moderate E winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE and become
moderate to fresh for the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of n Colombia, and the weakest winds over
the NW Caribbean. A surface trough is over the NE Caribbean from
21N63W to N of the Virgin Islands near 19N65W to 16N65W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Scattered showers are
also over the SW Caribbean from 12N-16N between 79W-84W to include
E Honduras and NE Nicaragua. In the upper levels, a ridge is over
the Caribbean Sea with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence is over
the Caribbean N of 12N, suppressing deep convection.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds across S central portions through Wed. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and
tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Fri. Fresh easterly swell will
build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to S of Melbourne
Florida near 28N80.5W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 26N71W. A
stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N55W to
23N60W. Isolated moderate convection is E of the front N of 23N
between 48W-55W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N17W
to 27N25W to 26N40W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N15W to
23N30W to 24N40W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front
E of 30W.

The remnants of an old frontal boundary N of the Leeward Islands
will gradually merge with a westward drifting surface trough
across the Virgin Islands during the next few days. W Atlantic
cold front will stall today and begin to lift northward late this
afternoon and evening as low pres deepens rapidly along the front
E of Georgia. This low will support gale force winds over the
waters N of 30N Tue midday through Tue night. The low will shift
NE and deepen further, then drag the cold front across the
Bahamas Tue afternoon through early Wed. High pressure following
the front will build over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu.
A weak low and front may develop over the NW portion by the end
of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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