[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 12N southward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N
southward between 30W and 41W.

A surface trough is along 13N52W 10N53W 07N55W. Any nearby
precipitation is part of the ITCZ precipitation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
08N36W, from 09N39W to 10N51W, and from 11N54W to 10N61W.
Disorganized isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward
from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers also cover the
area that is from 13N southward between 53W and Trinidad and
Venezuela.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N92W, moving
through the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 23N southward between 89W
and 96W.

A stationary front curves from 25N86W, northwestward, to a 1013
mb low pressure center that is near 28N95W. The stationary front
continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to 18N95W at the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
surface trough extends northwestward, from the 1013 mb low
pressure center, to 29N98W in Texas. The comparatively greatest
amount of multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, from 24N northward from 94W eastward, and from
94W westward. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in lines/areas
of low level clouds.

The current 1013 mb low pressure center will lift N slowly
through tonight, and then ENE across the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Thursday and Friday. The low pressure center will drag a new
cold front across the Gulf waters on Friday, with the front
becoming nearly stationary across the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage, southward,
toward the Gulf of Uraba, near the border of Colombia and Panama.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from land to 12N between 77W
and 82W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area
that is between 67W and 80W. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W
in Colombia, 08N80W in Panama, and beyond western Panama and
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N southward from 80W
westward.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. A cold front will become stationary across
the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the area that is from 13N northward between 36W and 56W.
This precipitation is associated with multiple areas of upper
level cyclonic wind flow/troughs that are in the same broad area
of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough is along 22N46W 18N53W.
This system is expected to move northward slowly during the next
few days, into an area where environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development. It is possible that
a tropical depression or a subtropical depression may form during
the upcoming weekend, while the system turns westward well to the
northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

A cold front passes through 32N76W to 30N81W along the Florida
coast. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, from 26N
northward from 59W westward. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 28N northward between 60W and 63W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the rest of the area that is 23N northward from 57W
westward. A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure
center, that is near 28N56W, to 25N70W, to Andros Island in the
Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough extends from the 1013 mb low
pressure center, to 25N68W and to 22N72W.

A surface trough extends from 19N48W to 15N47W. Weak upper-level
troughing is present in this area, with weak upper-level ridging a
few hundred nm to the northeast. The surface trough is expected
to move slowly northward over the next few days into an area where
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone development. A tropical or
subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser
Antilles. Isolated moderate rainshowers also cover the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N to 20N between Africa and 35W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
northward between Africa and 40W. A 1014 mb low pressure center
is near 35N26W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers
are from 26N northward from 32W eastward. Other rainshowers are
possible, elsewhere, from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

A weakening cold front extends over the area from 31N79W to
30N81W, with fresh NE winds N of the front through tonight. SE
winds will increase E of Florida on Friday, as a low pressure
system moves across the SE U.S.A.  A trailing cold front will
reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall
and weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net