[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A trough runs from 20N47W to a 1010 mb surface low, located near
19N49W, and continuing to 17N57W. Numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen from 20N-23N between 44W-48W with
scattered weaker activity from 15N-20N between 44W-47W. This system has
become better organized since yesterday with increased thunderstorm
activity, although the low's circulation is still not well defined.
This disturbance is expected to move northward over the next couple
of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to
be generally conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is most likely to form on Friday or
Saturday. After that time, the system is forecast to turn westward
well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next
week. The low has a medium chance of formation during the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38/39W from 11N southward
moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 01N-11N
between 30W and the wave axis. Scattered showers are also from
01N-04N between the wave axis and 41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
05N37W, from 06N40W to 06N51W, and from 12N52W to the NE coast of
Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the showers mentioned above
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection
is located from 03N-07N between 23W-30W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted well south of the monsoon trough of the
coast of Africa from 02N-06N between the coast of Africa and 16W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are between Trinidad and the NE
Coast of Venezuela.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front over South Florida extends from south of Lake
Okeechobee to Marco Islands into the eastern Gulf near 26N83W,
where it becomes a stationary front. A dissipating stationary
front is from 26N84W to 27N90W. A stationary front extends from
27N90W to a 1012 mb low centered near 28N96W. A stationary front
extends southward from the low to 19N95W. Scattered rainshowers
extend from near Houston Texas eastward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico, mainly along and north of the front. Multilayered broke
to overcast clouds are also near the low and within 75-100 nm of
the Texas coast west of 95W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N93W, moving
through the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the area that is from 22N southward between 89W
and 97W.

The low pressure in the NW Gulf of Mexico will lift N toward the
coast of Texas through tonight, then ENE across the N central
waters through Thu night, moving over the NE Gulf over N Florida
by Fri. The developing low will drag a new cold front across the
Gulf waters Fri. The front will pass to the SE of the Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia to 08N80W in
Panama, and beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough combined with an
area of weak upper-level diffluence in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea is enhancing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 09N- 13N between 77W-84W.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
through Sat. A cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico will become
stationary across Yucatan Channel Sat night and Sun. Expect fresh
to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the
tropical wave, monsoon trough/ITCZ and the low in the Special
Features Section... A 1010 mb low is near 28N65W with a cold front
extending SW from that to the central Bahamas. Another cold front
closer to Florida extends from 32N73W to 29N80W to just south of
Lake Okeechobee. A N-S surface trough is also analyzed from 30N79W
southward to the NW Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and
north of 24N between 55W-70W. Isolated showers with abundant cloud
clover is east of Florida and over the Bahamas. An E-W surface
trough along 31N between 55W-60W is enhancing convection in the
area.

A 1012 mb low near 25N36W extends scattered moderate convection
north of 29N between 20W-25W.

Fresh to strong NE winds N of the cold front near Florida are
expected through Thu morning. The front will stall tonight then
transition to a warm front Thu night. SE winds will increase E of
north Florida Thu night, NE of the front, as a low pressure system
moves across the SE U.S. A trailing cold front from this low will
reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas on Sat, then stall and
weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Hagen
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