[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 12N southward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
02N to 10N between 27W and 41W.

The 73W Caribbean Sea tropical wave from the 24/0000 UTC surface
map analysis is a surface trough at 24/0600 UTC. The surface
trough passes through the Windward Passage, southward, along 74W,
to northern Colombia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are 67W and
80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal/near the border with Gambia, to 10N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N21W to 09N32W, 09N50W, and 09N60W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N
to 10N between 27W and 41W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover
the rest of the area from 11N southward from 54W eastward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 12N southward between
54W and Trinidad and Venezuela.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 23N80W in the Straits of
Florida and extends to 27N93W to a 1014 mb low pressure center at
26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low southward in the
western Gulf of Mexico to 19N95W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are along the front from 21N-25N in the southwest
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted near the front east of the low from 26N-28N between 89W-94W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover most of the north-
central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico north of 25N and east of
92W. Surface observations and ASCAT data indicate that winds
around 25 kt are occurring north of the low in the northwest Gulf.

The 1014 mb low pressure center will lift N slowly through
tonight, and then ENE across the northern Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday and Friday. The low pressure center will drag a new
cold front across the Gulf waters on Friday, with the front
stalling, and becoming nearly stationary across the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W,
westward along 09N/10N to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over northern Colombia and the
southwest Caribbean from 08N-12N between 73W-76W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 10N-12N between
77W-83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring
over NW Venezuela from 09N-11N between 69W-73W. The rest of the
Caribbean is free of any significant convection under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. A cold front will become stationary across
the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 24N70W to 23N75W to
23N80W continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen along the front from 25N-29N between 64W-
66W. Additional scattered rain showers are north of 27N between
65W and the east coast of Florida. A surface trough is analyzed
from 29N56W to 27N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from
27N-32N between 50W-57W.

A surface trough extends from 19N48W to 15N47W. Weak upper-level
troughing is present in this area, with weak upper-level ridging a
few hundred nm to the northeast. The surface trough is expected
to move slowly northward over the next few days into an area where
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
tropical or subtropical cyclone development. A tropical or
subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser
Antilles.

Mid-upper level westerlies are pushing moisture from the trough
along 48W eastward across the eastern Atlantic. Widespread
cloudiness along with scattered showers covers the eastern
Atlantic from 25N southward to the ITCZ and monsoon trough and
east of 48W to the coast of Africa.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
northward between Africa and 35W. A 1014 mb low pressure center
is near 34N26W. Scattered to numerous moderate rainshowers are
north of 30N between 22W-31W. Relatively quiet weather prevails in
the latitude band from 26N-30N over the eastern half of the
Atlantic Ocean.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish more and more
today. SE winds will increase to the E of Florida on Friday,
as a low pressure system moves across the SE U.S.A.
A trailing cold front will reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas
on Saturday, and then stall and weaken from 30N70W to central
Cuba on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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