[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Michael is centered at 10/1800 UTC at 30.0N 85.5W, or
about 5 nm NW of Mexico Beach, FL, or about 15 nm SE of Panama
City, Florida. Michael is moving NNE, or 20 degrees at 12 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 919 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 120 nm of the center. Numerous moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the center, except only 150 nm in
the SW quadrant. The eye is clear on Doppler radar as well as on
visible and infrared satellite imagery. The eye diameter is 20 to
25 nautical miles. The eyewall is coming ashore right now along
the coast of the Florida Panhandle near Mexico Beach. A life-
threatening storm surge and extreme hurricane force winds have
already moved onshore. Hurricane force winds will continue to
push inland through the afternoon. Everyone in the hurricane
warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should continue to
hunker down in their current location. Hurricane force winds will
extend well inland across sections of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama this afternoon into
tonight. It is possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may
produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle
and the Big Bend region into sections of Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeast Virginia. It is likely that tropical storm
conditions will affect parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast from
northeastern Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect for these areas. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT34
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES
for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 27.8N 42.3W as of 10/1500 UTC,
or about 985 nm SW of the Azores. Leslie is moving SSE, or 150
degrees at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within
120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and 90 nm in the
southwest quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is noted
elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. A slow turn toward the
east-northeast is expected today, followed by a faster east-
northeast motion from tomorrow through the early weekend. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but
weakening should begin by Friday. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE
are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available
via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

Tropical Storm Nadine is centered near 12.6N 31.6W as of 10/1500
UTC. Nadine is moving NW, or 325 degrees at 6 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained winds
are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the eastern
semicircle and 60 nm of the center in the western semicircle.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen extending well
northeast from the center. A northwest to north-northwest motion
is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday. Little change in
strength is anticipated today, with weakening likely by tomorrow.
Nadine is forecast to dissipate over the weekend. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header WTNT35
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES
for NADINE are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 07N-19N moving
west around 10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted
with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted east of the wave axis near
48W. There is no shower activity near the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 19N extending
southward through Panama into the East Pacific to 06N. Movement is
westward around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough axis is depicted by model
analysis along 76W oriented NNE-SSW over the Caribbean Sea. Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates enhanced moisture is located
over the Caribbean between 71W-80W. West of 73W, scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 11N-18N between 73W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 12N23W. The monsoon trough
resumes west of Tropical Storm Nadine near 11N35W to 09N41W to
11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N53W to 09N60W. Other than the
convection mentioned above associated with Nadine, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted from 01N-09N between 14W-
29W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen
from 07N-13N between 35W-37W. Additional scattered showers are
from 11N-17N between 37W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 10N-13N between 56W-61W including over Trinidad.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael is near 30.0N 85.5W at 2 PM EDT moving NNE at
12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
Michael is making landfall now along the coast of the central
panhandle of Florida near Mexico Beach. Michael will move quickly
to the NNE and NE over the next 24 hours. Conditions will
gradually improve in the NE Gulf Thu through Fri, as Michael moves
quickly towards the Cape Hatteras and Tidewater areas.

A weak cold front is analyzed over the northwest Gulf of Mexico
from 30N93W to 27N98W. Isolated showers are noted near the front.
A stronger cold front is pushing eastward over central and
eastern Texas, and will likely overrun the weaker front over the
next day or two. The stronger front will push into the NW Gulf
tonight and Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to west-
central Gulf by early Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticylonic flow covers the Caribbean between 65W-74W.
Outside of the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves
section west of 73W, scattered moderate convection is noted from
the coast of Venezuela to the south coast of Hispaniola between
63W-73W. Isolated showers are noted over portions of the Leeward
Islands and vicinity.

The atmospheric conditions across the NW Caribbean Sea will
improve steadily today as Hurricane Michael moves inland over the
Florida panhandle. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across
the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell
from Hurricane Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and
Caribbean passages Thu and Fri.

Another broad area of low pressure is expected to develop across
the W central Caribbean along 79W-80W Fri through Sat and drift
slowly WNW through Sun. Environmental conditions are expected to
support gradual development and a tropical depression could form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly
westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for
information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical Storm Nadine and the
tropical wave along 51W.

Hurricane Michael is currently making landfall in the Florida
panhandle this afternoon. Michael is forecast to turn northeast
and accelerate toward the Cape Hatteras area. Squalls and tropical
storm force winds on the southeast side of Michael could spread
into the forecast area north of 29N and west of 79W late tonight
or Thursday.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Windward
Passage, just off the coast of SE Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the southeast and
central Bahamas. Similar activity is possible over Hispaniola
through the rest of the afternoon.

A surface trough is to the south of Hurricane Leslie from 23N42W
to 21W49W. No significant showers are occurring with the trough. A
surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is
near 33N11W to 30N11W to 27N17W. No significant shower activity
is noted with the trough.

A surface high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is
currently leading to quiet weather north of 22N between 52W-72W. A
weak 1015 mb surface high near 24N32W is creating quiet weather
currently from 21N-30N between 20W-36W.

http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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