[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Michael centered near 30.9N 85.1W at 10/2100 UTC or 30
nm W of Bainbridge Georgia moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. A turn toward the northeast is
expected this evening or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at
a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday
night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia through this
evening. Michael will then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States through Thursday, and then move off the
Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on late Thursday
night and Friday. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as
it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday.
Michael is forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when
it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a
post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Presently, numerous strong
convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 27N-35N between
82W-88W to include the NE Gulf of Mexico. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES
for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL
are available via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT4.

Hurricane Leslie centered near 27.8N 41.9W at 10/2100 UTC or 960
nm SW of the Azores moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. A faster motion toward the east-northeast will
likely begin by tomorrow, and this general motion should continue
through the early weekend. Slow strengthening is forecast during
the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-30N
between 38W-43W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available
via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available via
the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 13.1N 32.2W at 10/2100 UTC
or 460 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW
at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A NW motion
is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the west-
northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Gradual weakening
is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is
forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the
weekend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
12N-15N between 29W-33W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for NADINE are
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via
the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 07N-19N moving
west around 10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted
with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted east of the wave axis near
48W. There is no convection near the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 19N extending
southward through Panama into the East Pacific to 06N. Movement is
westward around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough axis is depicted by model
analysis along 76W oriented NNE-SSW over the Caribbean Sea. Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates enhanced moisture is located
over the Caribbean between 71W-80W. West of 73W, scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 11N-18N between 73W-78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Guinea-Bissau near 15N17W to 12N26W. The monsoon trough
resumes west of Tropical Storm Nadine near 11N36W to 10N42W to
12N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N54W to 10N61W. Other than the
convection mentioned above associated with Nadine, numerous strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 08N-12N between
13W-16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is just E of the
Windward Islands from 11N-13N between 57W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael is inland over SW Georgia. Convection over the
NE Gulf persists. Storm surge warnings are still in effect over
portions of the Florida Panhandle. Conditions will gradually
improve over tonight. A cold front is inland over E Texas moving
SE. The front will push into the NW Gulf tonight and Thu and
reach from the Florida Panhandle to west- central Gulf by early
Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticylonic flow covers the Caribbean between 65W-74W.
Outside of the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves
section west of 73W, scattered moderate convection is noted from
the coast of Venezuela to the south coast of Hispaniola between
63W-73W. Isolated showers are noted over portions of the Leeward
Islands and vicinity.

The atmospheric conditions across the NW Caribbean Sea will
improve steadily today as Hurricane Michael moves inland over the
Florida panhandle. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across
the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell
from Hurricane Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and
Caribbean passages Thu and Fri.

Another broad area of low pressure is expected to develop across
the W central Caribbean along 79W-80W Fri through Sat and drift
slowly WNW through Sun. Environmental conditions are expected to
support gradual development and a tropical depression could form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly
westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for
information on Hurricane Leslie, and Tropical Storm Nadine.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Windward
Passage, just off the coast of SE Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the southeast and
central Bahamas. Similar activity is possible over Hispaniola
through the rest of the afternoon.

A surface trough is to the south of Hurricane Leslie from 23N42W
to 21W49W. No significant showers are occurring with the trough. A
surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is
near 33N11W to 30N11W to 27N17W. No significant shower activity
is noted with the trough.

A surface high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is
currently leading to quiet weather north of 22N between 52W-72W. A
weak 1015 mb surface high near 24N32W is creating quiet weather
currently from 21N-30N between 20W-36W.

http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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