[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category 4 Hurricane Michael was centered at 10/1200 UTC at 29.0N
86.3W, or about 80 nm SW of Panama City in Florida, or about 80
nm WSW of Apalachicola in Florida. Michael is moving N, or 10
degrees at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 933
mb. The maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt.
Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the
northern semicircle and 90 nm in the southern semicircle. This
intense convection is starting to move onshore the Florida
Panhandle and southern Alabama. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center, expect
120 nm southwest quadrant. Life-threatening storm surge is
expected along sections of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida Big Bend, where a storm surge warning is in effect.
The worst storm surge is expected between Tyndall Air Force Base,
FL and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible.
Water levels are already rising this morning in advance of the
center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
area should have already completed their preparations. Everyone in
the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should
have completed their preparations for life-threatening major
hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane
force winds also will extend well inland across sections of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland. It is possible that heavy rainfall from
Michael may produce life- threatening flash flooding from the
Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region into sections of
Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. It is likely that
tropical storm conditions will affect parts of the southeast
U.S.A. coast from northeastern Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 28.6N 42.6W as of 10/0900 UTC,
or about 960 nm WSW of the Azores. Leslie is moving S, or 175
degrees at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120
nm of the center in the southern semicircle. Isolated to scattered
moderate showers are elsewhere within 150 nm of the center. A
slower south-southeastward motion is expected today, followed by
an east-northeastward motion tonight through Friday. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but
weakening should begin by Friday. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE
are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available
via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

The center of Tropical Storm Nadine at 10/0900 UTC is near 12.1N
31.1W. Nadine is moving NNW, or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are within 90 nm of the center north
and northeast of the center. Elsewhere within 180 nm of the center
in the E semicircle, scattered moderate rainshowers are noted. A
northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to
occur on Friday. Some additional strengthening is forecast through
tonight, with weakening anticipated to begin on Thursday. The
PUBLIC ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header
WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 07N-19N. A
maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. A 700
mb trough is noted east of the wave axis near 47W. There is no
shower activity near the wave axis. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 09N-17N between 40W-47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 19N extending
southward across Panama and into the East Pacific to 07N. A 700 mb
trough axis is depicted by model analysis along 75/76W oriented
NNE-SSW over the Caribbean Sea. Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates enhanced moisture is located over the Caribbean between
70W-80W. West of 77W, only isolated showers are noted from the
coast of Panama to 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 13N24W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Tropical
Storm Nadine near 09N36W and continues to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N52W to the coast of northeast Venezuela near 09N61W. Other
than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine and the
tropical wave along 50W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm south and 360 nm north of the
monsoon trough between 36W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted within 270 nm north of the ITCZ between 57W-60W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted from 01N-09N
between 10W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael near 29.0N 86.3W at 8 AM EDT moving N at 11 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Michael
is expected to make landfall along the coast of the central
panhandle of Florida late this afternoon, then move inland tonight.
Conditions will gradually improve from Thursday through Friday,
as Michael accelerates to the NE. A cold front will push into the
NW Gulf behind the exiting Michael Wed night and Thu and reach
from the Florida Panhandle to west-central Gulf by early Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level diffluent wind flow over the east-central Caribbean
is enhancing scattered moderate convection from the coast of South
America to 18N between 66W-76W. Conditions over the northwest
Caribbean have quieted down as Michael has moved well north of the
area. The eastern Caribbean east of 66W is mostly free of shower
activity this morning.

The atmospheric conditions across the NW Caribbean Sea will
improve gradually overnight as Hurricane Michael moves away from
the area. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the
eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday, before another broad low
pressure center develops across the W central Caribbean Sea from
Friday through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for
information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical Storm Nadine and the
tropical wave along 50W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Windward
Passage, just off the coast of SE Cuba. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow is present in the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough
extends northwestward to the NW Bahamas. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over the southeast and central Bahamas.

A surface trough is to the south of Hurricane Leslie from 23N41W
to 20W50W. No significant showers are occurring with the trough.

An upper level trough passes through 32N11W to Morocco near
23N15W. A surface trough extends from a 1004 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N13W, across the Canary Islands, to 23N21W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are along and near
the coast of Morocco.

Hurricane Michael, that is moving through the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, will move inland and weaken in the Florida Panhandle late
this afternoon, then veer NE and accelerate in a direction that
is parallel to the SE U.S.A. coast on Thursday and Friday. There
will be a chance of tropical storm force winds north of 29W and
west of 79W near the coasts of Georgia and north Florida on
Thursday.

http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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