[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 13N
southward. The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW imagery.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 08N
between 20W and 25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well
on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 180 nm to 240 nm of the coast, from 50W in
Brazil, westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea,
to 08N15W and 07N21W. The ITCZ is along 06N24W 04N33W, and 02N44W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the area that is from 03N to 09N from 17W eastward, and
from 07N southward between 27W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes across the Florida Panhandle, through
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and to the Gulf of Honduras and parts
of Guatemala and Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida, from 90W
eastward from 29N southward.

A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, starting tonight, and then drift
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the night, through
early in the next week. A frontal trough will cross the NE Gulf of
Mexico late this weekend with fresh SW winds. A surface ridge in
the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate SE
winds through the remainder of the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across the Florida Panhandle, through
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and to the Gulf of Honduras and parts
of Guatemala and Honduras. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the areas from Honduras northward from 80W
westward.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
coastal plains and coastal waters of Central America from Panama
along 79W to the east central coast of Nicaragua.

Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 22N between the Mona Passage
and 78W. The coverage for the precipitation includes Hispaniola,
the SE Bahamas, and the Windward Passage.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea, and in the
Gulf of Honduras, with mainly moderate to fresh trade winds
elsewhere, during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N55W to 24N60W. A cold
front passes through 32N49W to 29N52W, to a 1015 mb low pressure
center that is near 29N59W. The cold front continues to 28N61W,
and northwestward beyond 32N67W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers, are to the north of the line that passes through
32N37W 25N50W 22N61W, beyond 32N73W. isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers also are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N
northward between 77W and 80W.

A surface ridge extends from one 1024 mb high pressure center,
that is near 32N21W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 30N29W, to 25N40W and 22N55W. A 1020 mb high pressure
center is near 29N71W.

The current 1020 mb high pressure center, that is near 29N71W, is
forecast to weaken early next week. The resulting surface ridge
will move southward. A surface trough will be moving across the
Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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