[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 13N southward.
The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW imagery. Dry Saharan air is
keeping the area free of convection.

A tropical wave is along 56W S of 12N moving W at 15 kt. The wave
shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is south of 08N within 120 nm west of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along
20W from 07N21W to 02N32W to the coast of South America near
02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
the equator to 04N between 28W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the the basin tonight, as isolated
showers in the eastern Gulf have dissipated during the past 6-8
hours. Winds are from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 2-4 ft.

A large upper level high is centered over southern Mexico near
21N103W, producing northerly upper level flow over the western
Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis
along 88W.

A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and then drift across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the night, through Sunday.
A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain
gentle to moderate SE winds through the remainder of the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the coastal plains and coastal waters of Central America from
Panama along 81W to the east central coast of Nicaragua.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover Central America and the waters
of the NW Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 80W westward.
Southerly winds at speeds of 5 to 15 knots have been prevailing
across the western Caribbean Sea, and 15 to 20 knot trade winds
were in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, to the east of
80W. An upper level trough remains in the E Caribbean Sea with
strong subsidence.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf
of Honduras, with mainly moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere,
during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front
extends from a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 31N52W, to
29N57W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 30N60W. The
cold front continues to 29N61W, and northwestward beyond 32N68W.
A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N27W, to 24N42W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is
near 28N70W.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N70W, to the west of a
cold front that is moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. The
high pressure center will dissipate into early next week. A
surface ridge eventually will move southward. A surface trough
will be moving across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic
Ocean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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